FNUS73 KMQT 241533 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE CREEK...SENEY NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1133 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1110 EDT ON MAY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRE SITE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROCHING 45 MPH IN OPEN AREAS. IN ADDITION... WE HAVE LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON FRIDAY TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND RAISED THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY WITH SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING OF 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...PLAN ON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SENEY WILDLIFE REFUGE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCH. A GUSTY WEST WIND ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT DRIER EAST INTO THE AREA AGAIN...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING 25 TO 30 PERCENT. MOISTER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 40 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 32 TO 55 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (2045). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-5100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........8 10 17 22 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............75 78 80 78 RH..............41 35 31 32 GENERAL WIND....S 19 S 19 S 19 S 19 GENERAL GUST....32 38 45 45 VINDX KT-FT/100.1098 1750 2044 1410 MIX HGT (FT)....3200 4600 5100 3500 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH BY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 39 TO 63 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING WEST AND DECREASING TO 24 TO 41 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (207). LAL.................1 UNTIL 2300...INCREASING TO 3 UNTIL 0400...THEN DECREASING TO 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE SITE. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........25 47 67 86 75 56 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR TEMP............73 73 71 67 61 56 RH..............39 41 46 57 77 88 GENERAL WIND....S 18 S 18 S 18 S 14 S 14 SW 12 GENERAL GUST....40 40 25 25 25 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.336 311 495 526 268 237 MIX HGT (FT)....800 700 1000 1000 700 900 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DECREASING TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 36 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 29 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 6 TO 11 MPH LATE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 3 MPH OR LESS LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (866) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1410) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (704) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO FAIR (149) LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6000-6700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 4700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........30 35 40 45 47 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 63 69 72 75 71 RH..............79 57 41 32 27 31 GENERAL WIND....SW 13 W 19 W 17 W 14 W 12 NW 8 GENERAL GUST....25 28 29 25 25 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.496 763 1131 1382 149 0 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 3800 6000 6600 2100 BLW100 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...MRD REQUESTED BY...GARY LINSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120524.PINEC.02/MQT