FNUS73 KMQT 241825 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE CREEK...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 225 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1358 EDT ON MAY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRE SITE WILL SEE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH IN OPEN AREAS. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON FRIDAY TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND RAISED THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY WITH SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING OF 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...PLAN ON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SENEY WILDLIFE REFUGE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCH. A GUSTY WEST WIND ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR EAST INTO THE AREA AGAIN...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING 25 TO 30 PERCENT. MOISTER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 33 TO 52 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (2187) DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (880). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........13 20 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............82 82 78 RH..............32 28 33 GENERAL WIND....S 25 S 25 S 22 GENERAL GUST....45 45 45 VINDX KT-FT/100.1994 2121 880 MIX HGT (FT)....5400 5600 2500 HAINES INDEX....4 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 33 TO 57 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 47 TO 69 MPH BY LATE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 29 TO 52 MPH LATE SHIFTING TO THE WEST 24 TO 40 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (218). LAL.................1 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 3 UNTIL 0500...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........25 47 67 86 75 56 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR TEMP............74 73 71 66 61 57 RH..............37 40 46 59 76 87 GENERAL WIND....S 18 S 18 S 18 S 14 S 14 SW 12 GENERAL GUST....40 40 25 25 25 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.376 338 442 348 229 224 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 800 900 700 600 800 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (886) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1443) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1954) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (1295) LATE DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (635). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6000-7700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 6800-8500 FT AGL LATE DECREASING TO 4200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........30 35 40 45 47 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 63 69 72 74 70 RH..............80 58 41 31 28 32 GENERAL WIND....SW 13 SW 13 SW 14 W 12 W 12 W 8 GENERAL GUST....25 25 25 25 25 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.409 886 1205 1443 1954 1295 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 3700 5500 6600 8500 6800 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120524.PINEC.03/MQT