FNUS75 KRIW 251202 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER BILLIES RX...BLM RSD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 602 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1940 MDT ON MAY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...PLEASE CONFIRM WIND DIRECTION ON BLM MICRO #3 RAWS THANK YOU... A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL DRAW WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BURN AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR TODAY...THE BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING...AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM LATE THIS MORNING...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THE LITTLE COTTONWOOD CREEK AND RED CASTLE CREEK DRAINAGE BOTTOMS SHOULD BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION GOES DOWN AFTER 2 PM...WHEN THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRAINAGES ORIENTATION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-52. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10-15 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 2 PM. GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........79-82 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH BY 7 PM...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 9 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR BY 9 PM. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10-15 MPH BY AROUND 3 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15-25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 PM. GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 PM. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED BY 9 PM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...GREG RESER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120524.UPPER.01/RIW