FNUS73 KMQT 251605 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1205 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1116 EDT ON MAY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...PER COORDINATION WITH DNR...MOVED THIS SPOT FORECAST TO NEW COORDINATES ABOUT 4 MILES NNE OF PIKE LAKE. THIS LOCATION IS MUCH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR THAN THE OLD SPOT FORECAST LOCATION. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM N TO S OVER THE DUCK LAKE FIRE DUE TO THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEW FORECAST HAS HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY AT THE NEW SPOT LOCATION CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT CURRENT WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THEN MORE RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING ON THE WIND SHIFT. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 48 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (961) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1548) BY MID AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (918) LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5500 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2600-3300 FT AGL LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........22 18 15 11 15 18 22 25 29 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP..............64 64 65 63 62 60 57 55 52 RH................53 51 46 48 48 50 54 57 62 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW GENERAL WIND SPD..17 17 17 14 14 14 10 10 10 GENERAL WIND GST..25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100...961 1219 1412 1548 1484 1312 1100 918 753 MIX HGT (KFT).....3.6 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.3 2.6 HAINES INDEX......3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING CALM LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 19 TO 38 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 22 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (65) DECREASING TO POOR (24) BY MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%)...........32 34 36 38 39 41 43 44 45 47 48 49 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP..............51 50 50 49 48 46 45 44 43 43 43 44 RH................64 67 69 70 75 80 84 87 90 92 93 89 GENERAL WIND DIR..WNW WNW W W W W W W W NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 VINDX KT-FT/100...562 365 186 65 28 33 48 43 38 33 27 24 MIX HGT (KFT).....1.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (190). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........50 50 50 50 50 50 51 56 61 67 72 78 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW TEMP..............48 49 54 57 61 62 62 63 63 63 63 62 RH................80 77 64 57 50 49 49 48 47 48 48 50 GENERAL WIND DIR..NW NW NW NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE GENERAL WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...25 30 38 60 110 181 190 125 60 19 16 20 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 HAINES INDEX......3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120525.DUCKL.01/MQT