FNUS72 KMLB 271516
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SCENIC 33...USDA - FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1116 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1043 EDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK
NORTH OF THE BURN AREA. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL
WILL ALLOW BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING (MEMORIAL DAY). A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ALSO IN PLAY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING MAY BE SOME RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
BERYL MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. VERY GOOD DISPERSION INDICES CONTINUE
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT LVORI OF 5...AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. SOME
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTING
DENSE FOG NEAR THE WILDFIRE DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH BECOMING WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....            SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT PDS PDS
WEATHER TYPE....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............82  84  85  87  87  86  85  85  83  82  80  79
RH..............69  63  57  53  51  53  53  59  61  65  69  71
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..13  14  15  16  17  17  16  15  14  12  11  10
20 FT WIND GUST.18  20  21  22  23  23  22  21  20  18  16  15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-1400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 22 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....15.
LVORI...............5.

.MEMORIAL DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 25 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...TAMMY MILTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120527.SCENI.01/MLB