FNUS73 KMQT 270912 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR WIDGEON CREEK - TAIL OF FIRE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 512 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0446 EDT ON MAY 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DUCK LAKE FIRE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FIRE SITE THROUGH 1100 THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAINS MAY MISS THE FIRE SITE TO THE SOUTH...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR...MOSTLY AFTER 0700 THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANYTIME TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FIRE SITE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE MORE UNIFORM THAN SATURDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 50 PERCENT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST GENERAL WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERY UP TO 85 PERCENT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 MPH ON MONDAY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THEY BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. PLAN FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN MODERATE THOUGH WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 40 PERCENT. OUTLOOK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE FIRE SITE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AND TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS MAY NOT REACH 50 DEGREES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 72. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 59 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......EAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (336). LAL.................3 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.18 TO 0.22 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........100 97 93 90 86 83 79 78 77 76 74 73 WEATHER COV.....SCT NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM RW RW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............52 52 52 53 54 56 58 61 64 67 69 70 RH..............95 92 89 85 85 84 81 74 66 60 59 59 GENERAL WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE GENERAL WIND SPD..8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.72 57 42 27 20 19 25 54 104 181 259 336 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 57. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 88 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 33 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................2 UNTIL 0400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.05 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........72 69 65 62 59 55 52 52 51 51 51 50 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............70 67 64 61 59 58 58 57 57 58 58 60 RH..............62 67 74 80 83 83 83 86 88 88 88 85 GENERAL WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE GENERAL WIND SPD..9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 GENERAL WIND GST..20 20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.398 371 305 218 147 85 40 10 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .MEMORIAL DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 82. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 42 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 46 MPH DECREASING TO 16 TO 33 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (458) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1229) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1352) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (763) LATE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-4100 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........50 53 57 60 63 67 70 69 68 67 66 65 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............62 66 71 75 79 80 80 81 81 82 81 77 RH..............80 72 64 57 51 49 48 46 44 42 44 49 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 7 7 7 GENERAL WIND GST..20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.65 235 458 734 997 1229135211991027763 547 364 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.6 2.0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120527.WIDGE.01/MQT