FNUS73 KMQT 272113 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR WIDGEON CREEK - TAIL OF FIRE...MICHIGAN DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 513 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1712 EDT ON MAY 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN FREE OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY. MORE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 40 PERCENT OVER THE FIRE ON MONDAY. A COOLING TREND IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY STAYING BELOW 50 DEGREES FOR A LOT OF UPPER MICHIGAN. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 28 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (122). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-700 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........67 65 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............67 62 RH..............68 79 GENERAL WIND DIR..SE SE GENERAL WIND SPD..10 10 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.122 89 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.4 HAINES INDEX....3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 33 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (32). LAL.................1 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2 UNTIL 0700...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........62 63 63 64 59 55 51 53 55 57 57 57 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............65 63 62 61 59 57 57 57 57 57 57 58 RH..............73 75 77 78 82 86 87 88 89 89 91 91 GENERAL WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..9 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.55 43 50 58 55 53 48 48 45 45 35 32 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 HAINES INDEX....3 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 .MEMORIAL DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 37 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 52 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 25 TO 40 MPH LATE DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (485) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1008) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1993) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (1220) LATE DECREASING TO GOOD (423). LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-4200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 4400-5600 FT AGL LATE DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.11 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........57 58 59 60 60 60 60 59 59 59 60 62 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............61 66 72 78 80 81 81 82 83 83 77 70 RH..............85 75 63 55 50 48 46 44 42 42 49 62 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW W W W GENERAL WIND SPD..7 7 7 10 10 10 11 11 11 7 7 7 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.50 100 189 318 485 710 10081542199319551220423 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.2 5.2 5.6 4.4 2.5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MICHELS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120527.WIDGE.01/MQT