FNUS73 KMQT 280909 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE CREEK...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 509 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0450 EDT ON MAY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE PINE CREEK FIRE SITE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY REACH THE LOWER 80S...THOUGH IF CLOUDS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY...READINGS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND COULD GUST TO 25 MPH. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WHILE TURNING THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 84. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 45 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 19 TO 38 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 30 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (503) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (734) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1600-2300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.15 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........59 56 52 49 52 56 59 61 64 66 64 61 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............61 66 72 77 79 79 79 81 83 83 79 73 RH..............90 74 60 50 48 49 50 47 45 46 49 56 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW GENERAL WIND SPD..8 8 8 12 12 12 17 17 17 12 12 12 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 25 25 25 30 30 30 25 25 25 VINDX KT-FT/100.53 121 233 362 503 641 734 716 623 515 405 304 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 52. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 98 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING 5 TO 10 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL. WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.04 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........59 57 55 53 50 48 46 46 47 47 47 48 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............67 64 62 60 57 55 54 53 53 53 53 54 RH..............64 71 76 80 86 92 97 98 97 96 95 90 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW S S S SW SW SW GENERAL WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.230 172 130 93 63 43 30 9 0 0 0 22 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 67. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 31 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 11 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (595) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1253) BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (623) LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4900-6300 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING DECREASING TO 2700-3900 FT AGL LATE DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.09 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........48 53 57 62 67 71 76 75 74 73 72 71 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............56 60 64 66 67 65 64 63 63 61 60 58 RH..............83 71 60 53 51 52 53 52 51 51 53 57 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..6 6 6 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.112 329 595 876 1084121812531107897 623 408 227 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.4 2.6 3.8 4.9 5.8 6.3 5.8 5.0 3.9 2.7 1.6 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120528.PINEC.01/MQT