FNUS73 KMQT 282044 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR WIDGEON CREEK - TAIL OF FIRE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 444 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1643 EDT ON MAY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THIS FIRE WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE PUSHING SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST AS WELL AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR ONCE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OCCURRING NEAR THE FIRE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S QUICKLY. SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FOR TUESDAY THEN. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 45 MPH BECOMING WEST 17 TO 27 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (2090) DECREASING TO GOOD (504). LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.05 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........60 65 70 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 74 68 RH..............50 55 61 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W GENERAL WIND SPD..11 11 11 GENERAL WIND GST..25 25 25 VINDX KT-FT/100.20901266504 MIX HGT (KFT)...6.5 4.9 2.7 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING CALM...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 MPH OR LESS LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 27 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........75 69 64 59 60 62 64 64 63 63 59 56 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............66 62 61 59 57 54 52 51 51 51 51 51 RH..............62 71 78 85 91 96 100 100 98 95 98 100 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 VINDX KT-FT/100.101 16 9 25 21 24 30 30 30 35 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 37 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 29 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (466) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1471) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (794) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5300 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1900-3300 FT AGL LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.08 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........52 52 51 51 58 65 73 76 79 83 81 79 WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............51 56 61 64 65 64 62 62 62 61 59 57 RH..............98 81 63 51 49 50 51 52 53 56 56 58 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..7 7 7 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.58 466 1066147113621017759 760 766 794 633 407 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.9 3.8 5.3 5.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.4 3.3 1.9 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...MICHELS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120528.WIDGE.01/MQT