FNUS73 KMQT 290929 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR WIDGEON CREEK - TAIL OF FIRE...MDNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 529 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0443 EDT ON MAY 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH CONVERGING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE DUCK LAKE FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERAL WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FIRE SITE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY FROM REACHING BELOW THE 55 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 68. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 42 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 34 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (265) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1969). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900-8800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.08 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........70 63 57 51 60 68 77 80 83 86 82 77 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............52 56 60 63 65 66 67 67 67 67 67 66 RH..............94 81 67 58 51 47 45 44 42 42 42 43 GENERAL WIND DIR..W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..6 6 6 8 8 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.40 265 625 101612241192117312281311143617391969 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4 8.4 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.9 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 40. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 90 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 38 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 27 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (1630) DECREASING TO FAIR (276). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600-1900 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........73 75 77 79 80 82 84 85 86 87 87 88 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............63 60 55 51 50 48 46 45 44 42 41 42 RH..............48 52 60 68 69 71 75 76 81 87 89 87 GENERAL WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.199016301146772 688 735 804 722 602 507 367 276 MIX HGT (KFT)...7.1 5.6 4.0 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 47. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 62 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 27 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (714). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4100 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........89 88 86 85 83 82 80 71 61 52 24 19 WEATHER COV.....SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW TEMP............41 42 44 45 46 46 47 47 47 47 47 46 RH..............90 85 79 74 70 68 67 65 63 62 62 63 GENERAL WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 GENERAL WIND GST..20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.242 315 407 503 575 656 675 714 692 664 520 346 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 2.7 1.8 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...VOSS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120529.WIDGE.01/MQT