FNUS75 KBOU 042011 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR STUART HOLE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 210 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT AIR ALOFT AND LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WERE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON...A FEW HIGH BASED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LARIMER COUNTY. DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY...RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THESE SLOW NORTHWEST MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY BEGIN FORMING IN THE AREA AFTER 1530 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .THIS AFTERNOON... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1530. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81. MIN HUMIDITY........17-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-22 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10500-11000 FT AGL...LOWERING TO 9000-9500 FT AGL WITH CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52. MAX HUMIDITY........59-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6-12 MPH AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 14-24 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 9000-10000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47. MAX HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 14-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 12-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 9600-10600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR STUART HOLE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/04-13 28 10 2 75 23 SE16 26 5 2 N 8 9229 SE10 83222 G 06/04-14 75 10 2 76 22 SE17 29 4 2 NE 7 10000 SE10 95348 G 06/04-15 75 23 5 76 21 SE18 30 4 3 E 7 10771 SE12 107474 V 06/04-16 75 23 5 76 21 SE18 30 4 3 E 9 9922 SE14 117038 V 06/04-17 75 23 5 76 22 SE18 30 4 3 SE12 9072 SE16 126602 V 06/04-18 50 30 9 74 23 SE17 28 4 4 SE14 8223 S20 136167 V 06/04-19 50 30 9 72 27 S14 23 4 4 SE14 5593 S16 91707 G 06/04-20 50 30 9 68 34 S10 17 3 4 SE14 2963 S13 47247 F 06/04-21 50 30 9 64 41 S 8 13 3 4 S15 333 S 9 2787 P 06/04-22 50 30 9 61 46 S 8 13 3 4 S20 294 S10 2544 P 06/04-23 50 30 9 59 50 S 9 14 3 4 S24 255 S10 2301 P 06/05-00 43 6 1 57 53 SE10 16 3 1 S26 216 SE12 2058 P 06/05-01 43 6 1 55 56 SE12 18 3 1 S24 212 SE12 2199 P 06/05-02 43 6 1 54 60 S13 21 3 1 S20 207 S13 2339 P 06/05-03 39 6 1 52 64 S14 22 3 1 S15 203 S14 2479 P 06/05-04 39 6 1 52 65 S14 22 3 1 S13 200 S14 2376 P 06/05-05 39 6 1 51 65 S13 21 3 1 S13 198 S13 2273 P 06/05-06 27 3 1 51 65 S13 21 3 1 S13 195 S13 2169 P 06/05-07 27 3 1 54 58 S13 21 3 1 S13 677 S15 10175 P 06/05-08 27 3 1 58 49 S13 21 3 1 S13 1159 S16 18180 P 06/05-09 27 3 1 62 41 SE14 22 3 1 S14 1640 S18 26185 P 06/05-10 27 3 1 66 34 SE15 23 3 1 S14 4171 S17 56056 F 06/05-11 27 3 1 70 30 SE16 25 3 1 SW14 6702 S16 85926 G 06/05-12 73 30 9 72 27 SE17 28 3 4 SW16 9233 S15 115797 V 06/05-13 73 30 9 73 25 SE20 31 3 4 SW20 9545 S16 132732 V 06/05-14 73 30 9 74 24 SE21 33 2 4 SW23 9857 S17 149666 V 06/05-15 73 30 9 75 23 SE22 35 2 4 SW25 10169 S18 166601 E 06/05-16 73 30 9 75 23 SE21 33 2 4 SW23 9466 S20 160012 E 06/05-17 73 30 9 74 23 SE20 31 3 4 SW20 8763 S21 153424 E 06/05-18 62 20 4 73 25 S18 30 3 3 SW24 7454 S17 114034 V 06/05-19 62 20 4 70 27 S16 26 3 3 SW23 5109 S17 77838 G 06/05-20 62 20 4 66 33 S15 23 3 3 SW21 2764 S16 41642 F 06/05-21 62 20 4 62 39 S13 21 3 3 SW20 419 S15 5446 P 06/05-22 62 20 4 59 45 S12 12 3 3 SW22 332 S14 4084 P 06/05-23 62 20 4 56 49 SW10 10 4 3 SW25 245 SW12 2723 P 06/06-00 19 0 0 54 53 SW10 10 4 1 SW28 158 SW10 1362 P 06/06-01 19 0 0 52 56 SW10 10 4 1 SW29 144 SW10 1244 P 06/06-02 19 0 0 51 59 SW10 10 4 1 SW29 130 SW10 1127 P 06/06-03 19 0 0 49 60 W10 10 4 1 SW29 115 W10 1009 P 06/06-04 19 0 0 49 59 W12 12 4 1 SW28 116 W10 1055 P 06/06-05 19 0 0 48 57 W12 18 4 1 SW28 117 W10 1100 P 06/06-06 20 0 0 48 54 W12 18 4 1 SW26 118 W12 1146 P 06/06-07 20 0 0 51 47 W 8 8 4 1 SW24 524 W 9 2246 P 06/06-08 20 0 0 55 39 W 5 5 4 1 SW23 930 W 6 3346 P 06/06-09 20 0 0 60 32 W 3 3 4 1 SW23 1337 W 3 4446 P 06/06-10 20 0 0 64 26 SW 6 6 4 1 SW25 3626 SW 7 35442 P 06/06-11 20 0 0 67 23 S10 10 3 1 SW28 5916 S10 66439 G 06/06-12 66 30 9 70 21 SE15 24 3 4 S29 8206 S14 97436 G 06/06-13 66 30 9 71 20 SE16 26 3 4 SW26 9180 S14 107378 V 06/06-14 66 30 9 72 20 SE16 26 3 4 SW23 10155 S14 117320 V 06/06-15 66 30 9 73 21 SE16 25 3 4 SW20 11129 S13 127262 V 06/06-16 66 30 9 73 21 SE15 24 3 4 SW20 10683 S14 128403 V 06/06-17 66 30 9 73 23 SE14 22 3 4 SW20 10236 S15 129543 V 06/06-18 66 30 9 71 26 SE13 21 3 4 SW21 9789 S15 130684 V 06/06-19 66 30 9 69 29 E12 18 3 4 SW21 6759 SE15 90204 G 06/06-20 66 30 9 65 36 E12 12 3 4 SW21 3728 E15 49725 F 06/06-21 66 30 9 60 45 E10 10 3 4 SW24 698 E15 9245 P 06/06-22 66 30 9 58 52 NE10 10 3 4 SW31 1023 E14 12173 P 06/06-23 66 30 9 55 58 NE 9 9 3 4 SW39 1347 NE14 15100 P 06/07-00 39 0 0 53 64 N 9 9 3 1 SW45 1672 NE13 18027 P 06/07-01 39 0 0 52 68 N 8 8 3 1 SW44 1297 NE10 13053 P 06/07-02 39 0 0 50 72 N 8 8 3 1 SW40 923 N 8 8078 P 06/07-03 39 0 0 49 75 N 7 7 3 1 SW36 548 N 7 3104 P 06/07-04 39 0 0 48 74 NW 6 6 3 1 SW36 446 NW 7 2515 P 06/07-05 39 0 0 48 73 NW 6 6 4 1 SW37 344 NW 7 1926 P 06/07-06 35 5 1 48 70 NW 6 6 4 1 SW38 242 NW 7 1338 P 06/07-07 35 5 1 50 61 W 6 6 1 06/07-08 35 5 1 55 48 W 7 7 1 06/07-09 35 5 1 60 38 SW 7 7 1 06/07-10 35 5 1 65 31 SW 7 7 1 06/07-11 35 5 1 69 26 S 7 7 1 06/07-12 59 22 4 72 23 S 7 7 3 06/07-13 59 22 4 73 21 S 7 7 3 06/07-14 59 22 4 74 20 S 8 8 3 06/07-15 59 22 4 75 20 S 8 8 3 06/07-16 59 22 4 75 19 S 8 8 3 06/07-17 59 22 4 75 20 S 8 8 3 06/07-18 53 22 4 73 21 S 8 8 3 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120604.STUAR.01/BOU