FNUS75 KBOU 051021 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR STUART HOLE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 420 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING... .DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. THE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN EXPOSED AREAS. IF THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY STILL FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...WITH MORE EXTREME CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81. MIN HUMIDITY........19-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-14 MPH INCREASING TO 12-22 MPH BY 0900. GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 0900 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-53. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST 7-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........19-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTH 5-13 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 12-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 12000 FT AGL BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR STUART HOLE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/05-03 43 0 0 55 63 SW 3 3 2 1 S29 284 S 7 1579 P 06/05-04 44 0 0 54 62 S 3 3 2 1 S28 306 S 8 2104 P 06/05-05 44 0 0 54 62 S 3 3 2 1 S25 328 S 9 2629 P 06/05-06 44 3 1 53 62 S 3 3 2 1 S24 349 S10 3153 P 06/05-07 44 3 1 58 53 SE 6 6 2 1 S21 2065 S14 33986 P 06/05-08 44 3 1 65 42 SE 8 8 3 1 SW18 3780 S17 64819 G 06/05-09 38 3 1 70 35 SE10 16 3 1 SW18 5495 S20 95651 G 06/05-10 38 3 1 74 30 SE13 20 3 1 SW20 7167 S18 107280 V 06/05-11 38 3 1 76 27 SE14 23 3 1 W23 8838 S16 118909 V 06/05-12 52 15 3 77 25 SE16 26 3 3 W24 10509 SW14 130538 V 06/05-13 52 15 3 79 22 SE18 30 3 3 W24 10592 S16 149094 V 06/05-14 52 15 3 79 21 SE21 32 2 3 SW23 10675 S18 167651 E 06/05-15 73 30 9 78 21 SE22 35 2 4 SW21 10758 S20 186208 E 06/05-16 73 30 9 78 22 SE22 35 2 4 SW20 9305 S22 168982 E 06/05-17 73 30 9 77 23 SE22 35 3 4 SW18 7853 S23 151756 E 06/05-18 62 20 4 76 25 S21 33 3 3 SW18 6400 S24 134530 V 06/05-19 62 20 4 73 28 S20 31 3 3 SW21 4959 S26 107748 V 06/05-20 62 20 4 69 33 S17 28 3 3 SW23 3519 S28 80966 G 06/05-21 44 10 2 64 40 S15 24 3 2 SW24 2078 S30 54183 F 06/05-22 44 10 2 61 46 S13 20 3 2 SW25 1471 S24 37010 P 06/05-23 44 10 2 59 52 S 9 15 3 2 SW25 864 S18 19836 P 06/06-00 15 0 0 57 57 S 7 7 3 1 SW25 257 S12 2662 P 06/06-01 15 0 0 55 60 SW 7 7 3 1 SW25 225 S10 2133 P 06/06-02 15 0 0 53 63 W 7 7 4 1 SW26 194 W 9 1604 P 06/06-03 19 0 0 52 64 W 8 13 4 1 S28 162 W 8 1075 P 06/06-04 19 0 0 51 62 W 9 14 4 1 S29 191 W 9 1535 P 06/06-05 19 0 0 51 59 NW 9 15 4 1 SW30 221 W10 1994 P 06/06-06 14 0 0 51 57 NW 9 15 4 1 SW31 250 W12 2453 P 06/06-07 14 0 0 53 50 NW 8 13 4 1 SW32 933 W 9 4402 P 06/06-08 14 0 0 58 40 NW 7 7 4 1 SW31 1616 W 7 6350 P 06/06-09 14 0 0 64 33 NW 5 5 4 1 SW31 2299 SW 5 8298 P 06/06-10 14 0 0 69 27 N 7 7 3 1 SW36 4711 SW13 56546 F 06/06-11 14 0 0 72 24 E10 10 3 1 SW37 7086 S14 91973 G 06/06-12 66 30 9 75 22 SE13 21 2 4 SW37 9461 S15 127401 V 06/06-13 66 30 9 77 21 SE14 22 2 4 SW33 10560 S15 138907 V 06/06-14 66 30 9 78 21 SE13 21 2 4 SW28 11659 S15 150412 E 06/06-15 66 30 9 78 21 SE13 21 2 4 SW23 12758 S15 161918 E 06/06-16 66 30 9 79 21 SE13 20 2 4 SW21 12353 S14 144371 V 06/06-17 66 30 9 78 23 SE13 20 2 4 SW20 11948 S13 126824 V 06/06-18 73 30 9 76 25 E12 18 2 4 SW18 11543 S10 109277 V 06/06-19 73 30 9 74 29 E10 10 2 4 SW18 9179 SE10 83221 G 06/06-20 73 30 9 69 37 E 8 8 2 4 SW20 6815 E 9 57164 F 06/06-21 73 30 9 65 45 NE 7 7 2 4 SW21 4451 E 8 31108 P 06/06-22 73 30 9 62 53 NE 6 6 2 4 SW23 3566 E12 29756 P 06/06-23 73 30 9 59 60 N 5 5 2 4 SW25 2680 NE14 28405 P 06/07-00 42 0 0 57 66 N 5 5 2 1 SW28 1794 NE17 27053 P 06/07-01 42 0 0 55 71 N 6 6 2 1 SW30 1483 NE15 20671 P 06/07-02 42 0 0 53 75 NW 7 7 2 1 SW32 1172 N13 14289 P 06/07-03 42 0 0 52 77 NW 8 8 2 1 SW35 860 N10 7907 P 06/07-04 42 0 0 51 77 NW 8 8 2 1 SW35 903 N 9 6723 P 06/07-05 42 0 0 51 75 NW 8 8 3 1 SW35 946 N 7 5539 P 06/07-06 39 0 0 51 72 NW 8 8 3 1 SW33 989 NW 5 4355 P 06/07-07 39 0 0 54 63 NW 7 7 3 1 SW33 1759 NW 5 6273 P 06/07-08 39 0 0 58 52 W 7 7 3 1 SW32 2529 W 5 8191 P 06/07-09 39 0 0 63 42 W 6 6 3 1 SW31 3299 SW 3 10110 P 06/07-10 39 0 0 68 35 W 6 6 3 1 SW29 5938 SW 7 56000 F 06/07-11 39 0 0 71 30 SW 6 6 3 1 SW26 8576 SW12 101890 V 06/07-12 61 20 4 74 26 SW 6 6 3 3 SW25 11214 SW15 147781 V 06/07-13 61 20 4 75 25 SW 6 6 3 3 SW26 11738 SW16 165950 E 06/07-14 61 20 4 76 23 S 6 6 2 3 SW29 12261 SW17 184120 E 06/07-15 61 20 4 77 23 S 6 6 2 3 SW30 12785 SW18 202289 E 06/07-16 61 20 4 77 22 S 6 6 2 3 SW30 11707 SW16 167481 E 06/07-17 61 20 4 77 23 S 6 6 3 3 SW30 10630 SW14 132673 V 06/07-18 53 20 4 75 25 S 6 6 3 3 W29 9553 SW12 97865 G 06/07-19 53 20 4 73 28 S 6 6 3 3 SW29 7471 SW10 73842 G 06/07-20 53 20 4 68 34 SE 6 6 3 3 SW28 5390 S10 49820 F 06/07-21 53 20 4 64 41 SE 6 6 3 3 SW28 3308 S 9 25798 P 06/07-22 53 20 4 61 48 SE 5 5 3 3 SW28 2802 S 9 23082 P 06/07-23 53 20 4 59 53 S 5 5 2 3 SW28 2297 S10 20366 P 06/08-00 13 0 0 57 58 S 3 3 2 1 W28 1791 S12 17650 P 06/08-01 13 0 0 55 63 S 3 3 2 1 W28 1270 S 9 12130 P 06/08-02 13 0 0 53 67 S 5 5 2 1 W28 748 S 7 6610 P 06/08-03 13 0 0 52 69 SW 5 5 2 1 W28 227 S 6 1090 P 06/08-04 13 0 0 51 69 SW 5 5 2 1 W28 197 SW 6 967 P 06/08-05 13 0 0 51 68 SW 6 6 3 1 W26 168 SW 6 844 P 06/08-06 14 4 1 51 66 W 6 6 3 1 W26 138 W 6 721 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120604.STUAR.03/BOU