FNUS75 KRIW 050255
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SORE PAW...BLM WOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
855 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2015 MDT ON JUNE 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH BROUGHT VERY STRONG WIND OVER THE
FIRE SITE EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN
ANOTHER INSTANCE OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND UP TO 45 MPH.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE TOMORROW...HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...STRENGTHENING
WIND IS EXPECTED. THESE STRONG SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FIRE...WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2000 AND
2300 TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION...A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED DAYTIME HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY (30 TO 45 PERCENT).
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-62 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
                    WIND WILL DECREASE TO 7 TO 10 MPH BY 0100. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH...THEN DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH BY 0100.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2800-3800 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH....THEN DECREASING TO 15 TO
                    20 MPH BY 0100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (111900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (53700 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93-96.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH
                    BETWEEN 1400 AND 1600 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    AFTER 1400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500-10500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 31 MPH
                    AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (74500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (225600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.


.TUESDAY TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........61-64 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 22 TO 27 MPH THROUGH 2100...THEN DECREASING TO
                    10 TO 15. WIND WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST
                    DIRECTION BETWEEN 2000 AND 2300. GUSTS TO 40 MPH
                    POSSIBLE THROUGH 2100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH...THEN DECREASING TO
                    15 TO 20 MPH BY 0100.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH...DECREASING TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH BY 0200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 2900-3300 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 25 TO 30 MPH....THEN DECREASING TO 15 TO
                    20 MPH BY 0100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (111900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (58000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY...NOT AS WARM. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...WOLF
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120604.SOREP.01/RIW