FNUS75 KBOU 052326 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR STUART HOLE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 515 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LARIMER COUNTY AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LARIMER COUNTY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE INCIDENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND TO 35 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COULD ALSO SEE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND A JUMP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS MUCH AS 40 PERCENT WITH THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE RIDGETOP GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE VARIABLE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON ON THE VALLEY BOTTOMS. LATER TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FIRE AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM WESTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER RIDGETOP WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG STAND-UP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS UTAH. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY...UNTIL 1800 SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES........66-73. HUMIDITY............29-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9800-10800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY 25-35%)AFTER 2300. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2030. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49. MAX HUMIDITY........59-66%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 15-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 7-13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 9-18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2300...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........28-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTH 5-13 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 12-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 11800-12600 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR STUART HOLE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/05-16 73 30 9 80 20 SE22 35 2 4 SW28 10793 S22 203114 E 06/05-17 73 30 9 79 22 S22 35 3 4 SW28 9639 S23 190573 E 06/05-18 62 20 4 77 24 S22 35 3 3 SW28 8485 S24 178032 E 06/05-19 62 20 4 75 26 S20 31 3 3 SW29 6527 S25 140106 V 06/05-20 62 20 4 70 32 S15 24 3 3 SW30 4569 S26 102180 V 06/05-21 44 10 2 65 38 S12 12 3 2 SW31 2611 S29 64255 G 06/05-22 44 10 2 62 44 S 9 9 3 2 SW30 1835 S23 43818 F 06/05-23 44 10 2 60 50 S 7 7 3 2 SW29 1059 S17 23382 P 06/06-00 15 0 0 57 56 S 7 7 3 1 SW28 284 S12 2946 P 06/06-01 15 0 0 55 60 SW 7 7 3 1 SW26 254 S12 2481 P 06/06-02 15 0 0 54 63 W 8 8 4 1 S25 224 W10 2016 P 06/06-03 19 0 0 52 63 W 9 9 4 1 S26 194 W 9 1552 P 06/06-04 19 0 0 51 60 NW10 10 4 1 S28 246 W10 2304 P 06/06-05 19 0 0 51 55 NW10 10 4 1 S30 298 W12 3056 P 06/06-06 14 0 0 51 50 NW12 12 4 1 S31 350 W13 3809 P 06/06-07 14 0 0 54 44 NW 7 7 4 1 S31 1445 W10 8788 P 06/06-08 14 0 0 58 37 NW 6 6 3 1 S30 2540 SW 8 13767 P 06/06-09 14 0 0 64 32 NW 5 5 3 1 SW29 3635 SW 6 18746 P 06/06-10 14 0 0 69 27 N 7 7 3 1 S31 5567 SW 9 53359 F 06/06-11 14 0 0 72 24 E10 16 2 1 S32 7499 S12 87971 G 06/06-12 67 30 9 75 23 SE13 21 2 4 S33 9431 S15 122584 V 06/06-13 67 30 9 77 23 SE14 22 2 4 S30 10496 S15 135409 V 06/06-14 67 30 9 78 23 SE13 21 2 4 SW25 11561 S15 148234 V 06/06-15 67 30 9 78 23 SE13 21 2 4 SW23 12626 S15 161059 E 06/06-16 67 30 9 79 23 SE13 20 2 4 S25 12199 S15 156854 E 06/06-17 67 30 9 78 24 SE13 20 2 4 S28 11773 S15 152649 E 06/06-18 72 35 13 76 24 E12 18 2 4 S30 11348 S15 148451 V 06/06-19 72 35 13 74 29 E10 16 2 4 S28 9121 S14 114656 V 06/06-20 72 35 13 69 36 E 8 13 2 4 SW26 6895 SE13 80861 G 06/06-21 72 35 13 65 45 NE 7 7 2 4 SW24 4669 E12 47066 F 06/06-22 72 35 13 62 53 NE 6 6 2 4 SW23 3868 E12 39408 P 06/06-23 72 35 13 59 60 N 5 5 3 4 SW23 3067 SE12 31749 P 06/07-00 70 8 2 57 66 N 5 5 3 1 SW24 2266 SE13 24091 P 06/07-01 70 8 2 55 71 N 6 6 3 1 SW30 1787 E10 17293 P 06/07-02 70 8 2 53 75 NW 7 7 3 1 SW37 1309 NE 8 10496 P 06/07-03 70 8 2 52 78 NW 8 13 3 1 SW41 830 N 5 3699 P 06/07-04 70 8 2 51 77 NW 6 6 3 1 SW41 717 N 6 3249 P 06/07-05 70 8 2 51 75 W 3 3 3 1 SW38 603 N 6 2799 P 06/07-06 39 0 0 51 72 CALM 1 3 1 SW35 490 N 6 2349 P 06/07-07 39 0 0 54 63 CALM 0 3 1 SW32 1390 NW 6 8537 P 06/07-08 39 0 0 58 52 CALM 0 3 1 SW30 2290 NW 7 14725 P 06/07-09 39 0 0 63 42 CALM 1 3 1 SW28 3190 W 8 20912 P 06/07-10 39 0 0 68 35 E 2 2 3 1 SW26 6045 W 9 60151 G 06/07-11 39 0 0 71 30 SE 3 3 2 1 SW26 8899 SW12 99390 G 06/07-12 61 20 4 74 26 S 5 5 2 3 SW28 11754 SW14 138629 V 06/07-13 61 20 4 75 25 SE 6 6 2 3 SW30 12258 SW15 161149 E 06/07-14 61 20 4 76 24 E 8 13 2 3 SW33 12762 SW16 183669 E 06/07-15 61 20 4 77 23 E 9 15 2 3 SW37 13266 W18 206189 E 06/07-16 61 20 4 77 23 E10 16 2 3 W37 12342 W16 179052 E 06/07-17 61 20 4 77 23 E10 17 2 3 W37 11418 SW15 151914 E 06/07-18 53 20 4 75 25 E10 16 2 3 W37 10494 SW14 124776 V 06/07-19 53 20 4 73 28 SE10 16 2 3 W36 8496 SW13 94803 G 06/07-20 53 20 4 68 33 SE 9 15 2 3 SW36 6498 S10 64830 G 06/07-21 53 20 4 64 40 SE 8 13 2 3 SW35 4500 S 9 34857 P 06/07-22 53 20 4 61 47 SE 6 6 2 3 SW33 3745 S10 32784 P 06/07-23 53 20 4 59 53 S 5 5 2 3 W33 2990 S13 30712 P 06/08-00 15 0 0 57 58 S 3 3 2 1 W32 2235 S15 28639 P 06/08-01 15 0 0 55 63 S 3 3 2 1 W31 1815 S15 22996 P 06/08-02 15 0 0 53 67 S 5 5 2 1 W30 1395 S14 17354 P 06/08-03 15 0 0 52 69 S 6 6 2 1 W29 975 S14 11711 P 06/08-04 15 0 0 51 69 S 5 5 2 1 W28 761 S12 8333 P 06/08-05 15 0 0 51 68 SW 5 5 3 1 W26 547 SW 8 4955 P 06/08-06 14 4 1 51 66 SW 3 3 3 1 W25 334 SW 6 1576 P 06/08-07 14 4 1 53 57 SW 3 3 3 1 W23 805 SW 6 4997 P 06/08-08 14 4 1 59 44 SW 5 5 3 1 W21 1276 SW 7 8418 P 06/08-09 14 4 1 65 34 S 5 5 3 1 W21 1747 SW 8 11839 P 06/08-10 14 4 1 70 26 S 5 5 3 1 W23 4806 SW10 61271 G 06/08-11 14 4 1 74 22 S 6 6 2 1 W28 7865 W14 110704 V 06/08-12 33 5 1 77 19 S 6 6 2 1 W30 10925 W17 160136 E 06/08-13 33 5 1 79 17 S 7 7 2 1 W29 11756 W17 181363 E 06/08-14 33 5 1 80 16 S 8 13 3 1 W28 12588 W18 202589 E 06/08-15 33 5 1 81 16 S 9 15 3 1 W25 13420 W20 223815 E 06/08-16 33 5 1 81 16 S10 16 3 1 W24 12309 SW17 185567 E 06/08-17 33 5 1 80 16 S10 17 3 1 W23 11198 SW15 147319 V 06/08-18 18 4 1 78 17 S10 16 3 1 W22 10086 SW13 109070 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120605.STUAR.01/BOU