FNUS73 KMQT 050915 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE - TAIL OF FIRE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 515 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0447 EDT ON JUNE 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO A LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH TOWARDS MID DAY. THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A STABILIZING INFLUENCE AND KEEP DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE TAIL OF THE FIRE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO SIMILAR VALUES AS YESTERDAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...UNDER THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE. REMNANT CLOUDS COULD DROP OVER THE BURN SITE THIS EVENING FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR 90 PERCENT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON WED AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...LIGHT LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 MPH. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 71. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 42 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 9 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (201). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5700-6700 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING TO 800-1600 FT AGL LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........29 30 31 32 34 37 39 33 26 20 22 25 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............51 55 61 67 70 71 71 70 69 67 65 63 RH................91 80 64 53 47 44 42 43 46 49 51 55 GENERAL WIND DIR..SE SE SE NE NE NE N N N N N N GENERAL WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 4 7 7 7 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST.. 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100...13 65 103 151 183 201 199 170 125 80 64 31 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 1.6 3.4 5.0 6.1 6.7 6.6 5.7 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.8 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 45. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 90 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 4 TO 9 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 10 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%)...........27 30 32 35 38 40 43 44 45 46 47 48 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............60 56 53 51 49 48 47 46 45 45 46 49 RH................61 70 74 78 82 83 83 87 89 89 90 85 GENERAL WIND DIR..N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 VINDX KT-FT/100...10 2 6 13 10 8 8 8 10 13 3 0 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 72. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 12 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (314). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4300 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........49 45 41 37 33 29 25 25 25 25 24 24 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............53 59 65 69 70 69 69 70 71 71 70 67 RH................77 65 54 48 46 46 46 43 41 40 43 48 GENERAL WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW GENERAL WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST.. 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...18 101 230 314 304 262 229 275 288 303 232 111 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 1.4 2.9 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.3 3.3 1.9 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...SRF REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120605.DUCKL.01/MQT