FNUS73 KUNR 071159
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOUN DRAW...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
559 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0535 MDT ON JUNE 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BURN SITE TODAY AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS A SURFACE
TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE BURN SITE. THIS MAY CAUSE VARIABLE
WINDS...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIND DIRECTION.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...
ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
LAL.................4.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 TO 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.
RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO
                    17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 17
                    TO 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...JS
REQUESTED BY...CORY NAUHARTH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120607.SHOUN.01/UNR