FNUS73 KMQT 080920 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE - TAIL OF FIRE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 520 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0457 EDT ON JUNE 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. THE TAIL OF THE FIRE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF BOTH THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES TODAY...WHICH PRODUCES SOME VARIABILITY TO THE WINDS. BELIEVE THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN BECOME VARIABLE AND TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE FIRE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 5 PM. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OVER 0.70 OF AN INCH OF RAIN BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 74. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 49 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE WEST 4 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (79). LAL.................1 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2 UNTIL 1800...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.03 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........58 54 51 47 49 52 54 58 62 66 73 80 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO SCT WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............59 64 68 72 72 71 70 71 72 72 73 73 RH..............76 66 58 53 50 49 49 51 51 52 52 53 GENERAL WND DIR.W W W W W W NW NW NW W W W GENERAL WND SPD.4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 GENERAL WND GST.5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 VINDX KT-FT/100.38 57 76 78 119 85 54 56 53 50 37 23 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING AND DIMINISHING LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 59. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 91 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO 30 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (18). LAL.................4 UNTIL 0200...THEN 5 UNTIL 0400...THEN 4 UNTIL 0600...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.68 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........87 89 91 93 94 96 98 96 95 93 88 83 WEATHER COV.....SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM DEF DEF NUM NUM SCT CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............73 71 69 66 64 63 62 61 61 61 61 61 RH..............55 59 64 70 76 81 85 88 91 91 91 89 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW GENERAL WND SPD.4 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 GENERAL WND GST.5 5 5 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 VINDX KT-FT/100.18 18 21 30 38 48 53 55 55 53 36 28 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 75. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 58 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 4 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (274). LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1000-2400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........78 74 69 65 62 60 57 57 58 58 55 53 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............63 66 69 72 74 74 75 75 75 74 72 69 RH..............80 74 67 62 59 58 58 58 59 60 63 67 GENERAL WND DIR.SW SW SW W W W SW SW SW S S S GENERAL WND SPD.7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 GENERAL WND GST.13 13 13 14 14 14 9 9 9 7 7 7 VINDX KT-FT/100.38 80 140 190 243 274 260 197 96 28 11 22 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...SRF REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120608.DUCKL.01/MQT