FNUS73 KMQT 082036 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE - TAIL OF FIRE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 436 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1614 EDT ON JUNE 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE DUCK LAKE FIRE SITE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY... BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE BUT COULD REACH UP TO 0.75 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE FIRE SITE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART ON SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM WITH READINGS AGAIN NEAR 80 DEGREES AT THE TAIL OF THE FIRE AND IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. HUMIDITY VALUES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH READINGS IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. HUMIDITY RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT AT THE FIRE SITE. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN HUMIDITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4 TO 10 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (355) AT REQUEST. MAX...GOOD (355). LAL.................3 UNTIL 1800...THEN 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2600 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.05 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........66 78 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............78 74 RH..............45 55 GENERAL WIND....W 4 W 4 GENERAL GUST....5 5 VINDX KT-FT/100.355 157 MIX HGT (FT)....7100 2600 HAINES INDEX....3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 61. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 91 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 19 TO 30 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (1). LAL.................5 UNTIL 0400...THEN 4 UNTIL 0600...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-700 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.70 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........84 89 93 98 96 91 WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE NUMRUS SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 66 63 61 61 61 RH..............57 68 79 89 91 91 GENERAL WIND....S 5 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 7 SW 7 GENERAL GUST.... 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.40 1 11 28 48 35 MIX HGT (FT)....700 BLW100 200 300 300 200 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 79. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 50 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (304). LAL.................3 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.01 INCH. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........83 72 63 57 58 57 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............62 70 75 75 79 78 RH..............86 68 59 60 51 51 GENERAL WIND....SW 8 SW 8 W 7 SW 6 SW 6 S 5 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.48 241 286 198 153 73 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1400 1900 1500 1700 1200 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120608.DUCKL.03/MQT