FNUS73 KMQT 090941 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE - TAIL OF FIRE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 541 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0508 EDT ON JUNE 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FIRE SITE WILL SEE LITTLE OR NOW PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO IMPACT THE SITE...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD RESULT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE LAKE BREEZE MAY MOVE THROUGH TODAY...CAUSING MORE NORTHERLY OR LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 45 PERCENT TODAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE CRITICAL DAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 37 PERCENT. ALSO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (397) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (685) LATE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.03 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........76 72 69 65 63 61 59 63 67 71 66 60 WEATHER COV....... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE...... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP..............63 67 72 77 77 77 77 79 83 85 83 80 RH................84 76 66 60 58 59 59 54 48 45 48 54 GENERAL WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...18 67 140 212 224 219 227 397 562 685 518 277 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 3.1 4.3 4.9 3.7 1.8 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 31 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%)...........55 48 41 34 31 29 26 23 20 17 16 15 WEATHER COV.......SCH WEATHER TYPE......TSM TEMP..............76 73 70 67 65 63 61 60 59 59 59 60 RH................61 65 68 71 75 79 82 86 88 88 90 90 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...40 0 0 55 58 55 55 55 55 55 37 27 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 19 TO 38 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 28 TO 44 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (389) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (942) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1533) IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO GOOD (538) EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 3600-5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........14 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............63 66 73 79 81 81 81 84 86 87 85 81 RH................83 76 61 51 47 46 46 41 38 37 40 46 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..8 8 8 11 11 11 17 17 17 18 18 18 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 VINDX KT-FT/100...53 116 233 389 646 942 12461445153314501066538 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.0 3.6 1.7 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120609.DUCKL.02/MQT