FNUS75 KSLC 100018
FWSSLC

SPOT FORECAST FOR BOX CREEK FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
618 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE FIRE AS OF
1800 LOCAL TIME...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM WEST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND
AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A DRIER AIRMASS WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW TEENS. PRIMARILY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP ENOUGH ONE OR TWO OF THESE
AFTERNOONS TO CREATE GUSTS 15-20 MPH. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW
STRONG THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MIGHT BE. ONE MODEL INDICATES
CONTINUING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS THE
STORM WEAKENS AND HEADS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER MODEL HAS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.


.TONIGHT...
  LAL.................1.
  HAINES INDEX........4 ..LOW.
  SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
  MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-29.
  MAX HUMIDITY........51-54 PERCENT.
  WINDS - 20-FOOT.....WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
                      GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH DECREASING TO
                      10 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
  LAL.................1.
  HAINES INDEX........5 ..MODERATE.
  CLEARING INDEX......560.
  SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
  MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-55.
  MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
  WINDS - 20-FOOT.....NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS
                      UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
  LAL.................1.
  HAINES INDEX........4 ..LOW.
  SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
  MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-36.
  MAX HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT.
  WINDS - 20-FOOT.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH.

.OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...
  LAL.................1.
  HAINES INDEX........5 ..MODERATE.
  CLEARING INDEX......410.
  SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
  MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
  MIN HUMIDITY........12-15 PERCENT.
  WINDS - 20-FOOT.....UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.



FORECASTER...SCHOENING
REQUESTED BY...RYAN MCCOLLIN
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120609.BOXCR.02/SLC

$$