FNUS75 KBOU 112027 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HIGH PARK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 227 PM MDT MON JUN 11 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND DOWNSLOPE BY MIDNIGHT. ONLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS. WHILE MAINLY DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE OF WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH MAX HEATING AND MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MORE LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76. MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......13800-14400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........54-58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-10 MPH UNTIL 2400... THEN WEST/NORTHWEST 5-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 1-9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......14000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL BY 0100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81. MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. SOME HIGHER RIDGES MAY BECOME WEST 10-16 MPH AFTER 1500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 13400-14400 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HIGH PARK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/11-14 27 6 1 74 16 SE14 21 3 1 W21 12940 SW 9 109784 V 06/11-15 32 2 0 73 16 SE13 21 3 1 W22 13407 SW10 124555 V 06/11-16 35 2 0 74 16 SE14 22 3 1 W22 13291 SW12 132555 V 06/11-17 38 2 0 74 16 SE15 23 3 1 W23 13175 SW13 140555 V 06/11-18 40 3 1 74 17 SE15 23 3 1 W23 13058 SW13 148556 V 06/11-19 36 3 1 72 20 SE13 21 3 1 W24 10180 S14 117262 V 06/11-20 36 3 1 68 24 S 10 17 2 1 W25 7302 S14 85968 G 06/11-21 36 3 1 63 29 S 8 10 2 1 W25 4424 S14 54674 F 06/11-22 36 3 1 60 34 SW 7 8 2 1 W26 3340 SW12 39371 P 06/11-23 36 3 1 58 38 SW 6 7 2 1 W28 2256 SW10 24069 P 06/12-00 24 0 0 56 41 SW 5 5 2 1 W29 1172 SW 8 8766 P 06/12-01 24 0 0 54 45 W 5 5 2 1 W29 863 SW 6 5968 P 06/12-02 24 0 0 51 49 W 5 5 2 1 W29 554 NW 5 3169 P 06/12-03 24 0 0 49 52 NW 5 5 3 1 W29 245 NW 2 370 P 06/12-04 24 0 0 49 53 NW 5 5 3 1 W28 212 NW 3 626 P 06/12-05 24 0 0 48 54 NW 5 5 4 1 W28 189 NW 5 651 P 06/12-06 28 0 0 48 54 W 5 5 4 1 W29 167 NW 5 677 P 06/12-07 28 0 0 50 50 W 3 3 4 1 W29 539 NW 5 2280 P 06/12-08 28 0 0 58 37 SE 2 2 4 1 W30 912 NW 5 3883 P 06/12-09 28 0 0 62 32 E 2 2 4 1 W31 1284 NW 5 5487 P 06/12-10 28 0 0 66 28 SE 3 3 4 1 W33 4198 NW 8 48774 F 06/12-11 28 0 0 70 24 SE 6 6 4 1 W36 7112 W12 92062 G 06/12-12 49 7 1 72 22 SE 7 8 4 1 W37 10025 W15 135350 V 06/12-13 49 7 1 75 19 SE 9 13 4 1 W33 11655 W16 165035 E 06/12-14 49 7 1 78 17 SE12 16 4 1 W30 13284 W16 194720 E 06/12-15 49 7 1 78 17 SE12 17 4 1 W26 14914 W17 224405 E 06/12-16 49 7 1 78 16 S 9 12 4 1 W25 12735 W15 173543 E 06/12-17 49 7 1 79 15 S 6 6 4 1 W24 10557 W12 122682 V 06/12-18 48 7 1 74 18 S 3 3 4 1 W24 8379 W 9 71821 G 06/12-19 48 7 1 72 19 S 2 2 4 1 W24 5677 W 7 48026 F 06/12-20 48 7 1 68 23 CALM 1 4 1 W25 2976 SW 5 24231 P 06/12-21 48 7 1 64 28 S 2 2 4 1 W26 274 CALM 437 P 06/12-22 48 7 1 61 32 SW 2 2 4 1 W29 263 SW 2 623 P 06/12-23 48 7 1 59 36 W 2 2 4 1 W31 236 W 2 548 P 06/13-00 28 6 1 57 40 W 3 3 4 1 W32 209 W 2 473 P 06/13-01 28 6 1 55 42 W 6 6 4 1 W33 197 W 5 718 P 06/13-02 28 6 1 53 44 W 7 9 4 1 W33 186 W 6 963 P 06/13-03 28 6 1 52 46 W 9 12 4 1 W33 175 NW 8 1208 P 06/13-04 28 6 1 51 46 W 9 13 4 1 W35 154 W 8 1107 P 06/13-05 28 6 1 51 45 W10 14 4 1 W35 133 W 9 1007 P 06/13-06 23 3 1 51 44 W 9 13 4 1 W36 112 W 9 907 P 06/13-07 23 3 1 54 40 W 8 9 4 1 W33 609 W 8 3003 P 06/13-08 23 3 1 60 32 W 6 6 4 1 W32 1107 W 6 5099 P 06/13-09 23 3 1 66 26 W 3 3 4 1 W31 1605 W 5 7194 P 06/13-10 23 3 1 71 21 W 3 3 4 1 W31 5111 W 8 57362 F 06/13-11 23 3 1 75 18 S 5 5 4 1 W32 8616 W12 107531 V 06/13-12 34 4 1 79 17 S 6 6 4 1 W31 12122 W15 157699 E 06/13-13 34 4 1 80 15 S 7 7 4 1 W30 12355 W15 155005 E 06/13-14 34 4 1 81 15 S 8 9 4 1 W28 12588 SW14 152311 E 06/13-15 34 4 1 82 14 S 8 12 4 1 W24 12821 SW14 149617 V 06/13-16 34 4 1 82 14 S 9 12 4 1 W22 10770 SW12 111847 V 06/13-17 34 4 1 82 14 S 9 10 4 1 W20 8719 SW 8 74078 G 06/13-18 35 5 1 80 14 S 8 10 4 1 W17 6667 S 6 36308 P 06/13-19 35 5 1 78 16 S 7 8 4 1 W15 4547 S 6 24560 P 06/13-20 35 5 1 74 19 S 6 6 4 1 SW12 2426 S 5 12813 P 06/13-21 35 5 1 69 24 S 5 5 4 1 SW 9 306 S 3 1065 P 06/13-22 35 5 1 66 27 SW 3 3 4 1 SW 8 270 SW 3 783 P 06/13-23 35 5 1 64 31 SW 2 2 4 1 SW 9 234 SW 2 502 P 06/14-00 28 4 1 62 34 CALM 1 4 1 W10 199 CALM 221 P 06/14-01 28 4 1 60 36 CALM 1 4 1 W12 183 W 2 327 P 06/14-02 28 4 1 58 38 W 2 2 4 1 W13 168 W 3 434 P 06/14-03 28 4 1 57 39 W 5 5 4 1 W14 152 W 5 541 P 06/14-04 28 4 1 56 39 W 6 6 4 1 W14 138 W 6 607 P 06/14-05 28 4 1 56 39 W 7 7 5 1 W14 124 W 7 673 P 06/14-06 24 6 1 56 38 W 8 8 5 1 W14 110 W 8 739 P 06/14-07 24 6 1 58 35 W 8 8 1 06/14-08 24 6 1 63 29 W 8 8 1 06/14-09 24 6 1 69 25 SW 8 8 1 06/14-10 24 6 1 74 21 SE 8 8 1 06/14-11 24 6 1 77 19 SE 7 7 1 06/14-12 32 11 2 80 18 SE 7 7 2 06/14-13 32 11 2 82 17 SE 7 7 2 06/14-14 32 11 2 82 17 SE 7 8 2 06/14-15 32 11 2 83 16 SE 7 8 2 06/14-16 32 11 2 83 16 SE 7 8 2 06/14-17 32 11 2 83 17 SE 7 8 2 06/14-18 36 10 2 81 18 SE 7 8 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KELLY CLOSE REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120611.HIGHP.01/BOU