FNUS73 KLSX 111402
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR 829...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
902 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0823 CDT ON JUNE 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES AND RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE GUST FRONT AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
GUST FRONT WAS LOCATED THROUGH ST. CHARLES AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AT
845 AM. I'M NOT SURE YET IF THE GUST FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
TO REYNOLDS COUNTY BUT IF IT DOES THEN EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO OVER
30 MPH. IT SHOULD TAKE 3-5 HOURS FOR THE GUST FRONT TO REACH THE LOCATION
OF THE WILDFIRE IN REYNOLDS COUNTY. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CALL OUR OFFICE
AT ANY TIME TO OBTAIN THE MOST CURRENT LOCATION OF THE GUST FRONT. WINDS
MAY ALSO BE ERRATIC DURING THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW DUE TO A DRIER AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO BETWEEN 30
AND 35 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........74 AT REQUEST...MAX 85.
RH..................82 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH AT 1-2 MPH AT REQUEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 1-3 MPH
                    BY THE END OF THE DAY. EYE LEVEL WINDS WERE CALCULATED
                    WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.2 FOR FULLY SHELTERED FUELS.
                    PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE GUST
                    FRONT.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AT IGNITION...4100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (9552 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 0100...THEN NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 61.
RH..................MAX 95 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....LIGHT WIND.
WIND...20 FT........LIGHT WIND. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....NORTH WIND 1-3 MPH. EYE LEVEL WIND WAS CALCULATED WITH
                    AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.2 FOR FULLY SHELTERED FUELS.
WIND...20 FT........NORTH WIND 5 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 16 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (8735 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120611.829__.01/LSX