FNUS75 KGJT 121519
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE SAND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
919 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0833 MDT ON JUNE 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN NEW MEXICO HAS PUSHED
WEST OF THE FIRE SITE THIS MORNING AND WAS HELPING TO DEFINE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FIRE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID PUSH
IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COULD INCREASE FROM
YESTERDAY. OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM THESE
STORMS AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS DID TURN MORE
EASTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS TO MIX
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
HEATING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%). BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
                    NORTH OF THE FIRE BY MID AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 8500 FEET 71-75 F.
                    NEAR 9500 FEET 64-69 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 8500 FEET 8-13%.
                    NEAR 9500 FEET 12-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
                    MID MORNING...TURNING TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 11 TO 16 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
                    OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEED TO
                    BE MONITORED.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10400-11400 FT AGL IN BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH AT PEAK HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THROUGH MID EVENING WITH
                    THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE
                    HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRE.
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%) OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 8500 FEET 40-45 F.
                    NEAR 9500 FEET 37-42 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 8500 FEET 29-34%.
                    NEAR 9500 FEET 33-38%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER SUNSET. OUTFLOW WINDS
                    WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD DECREASING TO POOR BY THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH....BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
                    BY LATE EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...ALLEN FARNSWORTH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120612.LITTL.01/GJT