FNUS72 KJAX 130905
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DUNNS CREEK SP...FL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
505 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1105 EDT ON JUNE 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WIND FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LOWER DISPERSIONS VALUES
THAN ON TUESDAY...WITH DISPERSION AROUND 40-50 NEAR THE BURN SITE TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL TURN WESTERLY BY AROUND
11 AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE MID AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON
OVER PUTNAM COUNTY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN STRONGER STORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS MAY RESULT IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 47.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........58     65     72     77
WEATHER COV.....SLIGHT LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............87     89     89     87
RH..............66     57     56     62
20 FT WIND......W 7    W 8    W 6    W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     5
MIX HGT (FT)....2900   3500   3500   3200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9    W 10   W 12   W 12
LVORI...........3      1      1      1
DISPERSION INDX.37     47     49     45
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     50     60     60
LAL.............3      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-800 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 TO 10 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....32 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........77     80     79     72     72     66
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............85     81     78     76     74     73
RH..............62     71     79     83     87     90
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 1    W 1    W 1    W 1    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2800   2000   1400   1100   900    700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10   NW 6   SW 3   S 3    W 5    W 6
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      6
DISPERSION INDX.36     4      3      3      3      4
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     60     50     30     30     30
LAL.............4      4      3      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3700 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 37.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...JASON DEPUE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120613.DUNNS.01/JAX