FNUS72 KMLB 130920
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE PASTURES...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JUNE 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO NORTH FLORIDA
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL BE FORCED THROUGH THE BURN AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE
AREA THESE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL RETARD ITS PROGRESSION
AND THEREFORE IT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BURN AREA.

GREATEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CREATE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN A FEW HEAVIER CELLS.
OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS MAY CREATE CHAOTIC WIND DIRECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY
AND EVENING. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARDS THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
                    4 TO 6 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....52.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....        TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............80  84  86  88  90  90  90  89  87  84  82  80
RH..............69  61  57  52  49  49  49  48  53  59  65  69
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.7   8   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
                    TO LATE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.
LVORI...............8.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 8 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....37.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...PAUL MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120613.KISSI.01/MLB