FNUS73 KMQT 130914 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE NEAR PIKE LAKE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 514 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JUNE 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME TRICKIER...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THIS AFTERNOON AS A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING OF THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE LAKE BREEZE IS AROUND NOON...AND THE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SPOT FORECAST LOCATION. HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY IS GOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IN RELATION TO THE LAKE BREEZE IS LIMITED. REGARDLESS OF WHERE AND WHEN THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES THROUGH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AT OR BELOW 15 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S AT THE SPOT FORECAST LOCATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE SPOT FORECAST LOCATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 32 PERCENT...WITH CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. FOR THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND WINDS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 MPH FOR THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE MOVE INTO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 4 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 6 TO 11 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (386). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6400 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........12 12 13 13 17 22 26 26 26 26 25 25 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............46 51 58 63 65 66 66 68 69 70 70 70 RH................84 69 56 46 41 39 37 35 34 33 32 33 GENERAL WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W NW N NE NE SE SE SE GENERAL WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...25 179 291 354 318 312 237 301 304 360 352 386 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 2.0 4.2 5.9 6.4 6.2 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.5 HAINES INDEX......3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 27 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1600 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%)...........24 26 28 30 35 41 46 48 49 51 49 47 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............68 63 59 54 52 50 49 48 48 49 49 50 RH................36 41 49 57 63 69 72 76 78 79 81 80 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 GENERAL WIND GST..15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100...381 328 189 35 0 1 48 48 45 45 1 0 MIX HGT (KFT).....4.8 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX......3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 28 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (299) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (995) BY LATE MORNING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........45 43 40 38 36 33 31 31 31 31 32 32 WEATHER COV....... WEATHER TYPE...... TEMP..............52 57 64 70 71 71 71 74 76 76 76 73 RH................76 63 49 40 38 37 37 34 32 31 33 39 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE GENERAL WIND SPD..10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 GENERAL WIND GST..20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100...45 299 645 903 995 940 867 887 860 842 794 659 MIX HGT (KFT).....0.3 1.7 3.4 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.3 HAINES INDEX......4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120613.DUCKL.01/MQT