FNUS73 KICT 141704 FWSICT SPOT FORECAST FOR LINCOLN COUNTY WILDFIRE...LINCOLN COUNTY EM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1127 CDT ON JUNE 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SLACKENING SOME AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST AFTER 7 PM. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. ANY WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG AND VERY ERRATIC. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER...AS CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. ADK .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 18 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-8300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 23 TO 32 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........26 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC LKY WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TEMP............87 90 92 93 94 94 93 93 RH..............53 48 44 42 40 40 41 42 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 35 35 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.6 5.7 6.6 7.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SE MIXNG WIND SPD..32 30 26 25 24 23 23 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................67 PERCENT DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-2200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 24 TO 32 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT DECREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........60 71 83 94 92 90 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............91 84 78 75 71 70 RH..............42 53 63 70 79 84 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 13 S 10 S 7 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 20 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....7900 4500 2200 1100 800 800 MIXNG WIND......SE 24 S 32 S 35 S 29 SE 20 SE 13 CWR.............60 60 60 70 70 60 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................36 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........88 70 53 40 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............69 77 84 87 RH..............86 64 52 50 20 FT WIND......SE 6G10 SE 7G15 SE 9G20 SE 10G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 3600 5800 6500 MIXNG WIND......SE 12 SE 9 SE 12 S 15 CWR.............40 40 40 40 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...KLEINSASSER REQUESTED BY...LINCOLN COUNTY EM TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120614.LINCO.01/ICT