FNUS72 KMLB 140913
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR N  SHOP AREA...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
513 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON JUNE 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL FINALLY
GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIGHT MORNING WINDS OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CROSS THE BURN AREA EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS INLAND SLOWLY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RETARD A QUICKER INLAND MOVEMENT.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES. GREATEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZE AND
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CREATE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN A FEW HEAVIER CELLS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE
TOWARDS THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. THERE WILL
BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.
DISPERSION WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST TO NORTH 8 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....30.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
SKY (%).........PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............86  87  88  87  87  87  84  82  79  78  77  77
RH..............63  61  59  61  61  61  67  72  79  82  85  85
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   8   9   9   9   9   8   7   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.9   10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8   8   7   7

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
LVORI...............6.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.               MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....46.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...EVAN HALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120614.NSHOP.02/MLB