FNUS73 KMQT 150937 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE NEAR PIKE LAKE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 537 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0459 EDT ON JUNE 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... TRICKY FORECAST FOR TODAY PRECIPITATION WISE. SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SATURATE SOME THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THESE WILL FORM. THERE IS EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE MOVING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FIRE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BREEZE FRONT FROM MOVING OVER THE FIRE. THE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 11 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 18 TO 31 MPH BY LATE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (629). LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1500-2700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.12 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........80 80 81 81 79 78 76 78 79 81 79 76 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............62 63 66 69 71 72 73 76 78 80 80 78 RH..............60 59 58 57 55 54 53 50 46 45 45 48 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WND SPD.14 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 11 9 9 9 GENERAL WND GST.22 22 22 23 23 23 21 21 21 16 16 16 VINDX KT-FT/100.137 163 183 194 199 215 273 411 557 629 524 348 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO 11 TO 18 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). LAL.................2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2 UNTIL 0700...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.02 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........74 68 63 57 63 68 74 73 71 70 64 59 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............76 74 71 69 66 64 62 61 61 62 61 62 RH..............52 56 60 64 70 75 79 81 80 79 81 81 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WND SPD.7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 GENERAL WND GST.13 13 13 13 13 13 9 9 9 9 9 9 VINDX KT-FT/100.178 125 108 104 75 54 43 35 31 30 8 0 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6...OR VERY LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 34 TO 49 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (484) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1119) LATE...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1424) LATE DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (899) EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1700...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4100-5100 FT AGL LATE DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........53 50 48 45 43 40 38 41 45 49 53 57 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TEMP............65 69 76 81 83 83 83 85 87 87 86 83 RH..............73 68 56 48 47 47 48 44 41 40 40 44 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WND SPD.6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 9 11 11 11 GENERAL WND GST.8 8 8 13 13 13 20 20 20 21 21 21 VINDX KT-FT/100.30 157 336 461 484 456 450 735 111914241302899 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.3 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.1 4.1 2.5 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120615.DUCKL.01/MQT