FNUS75 KRIW 151049 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR CARTER EXERCISE...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 449 AM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MDT ON JUNE 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS THE SITE AROUND 1000L. GUSTY UP CANYON EASTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE AND DRY OUT AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES WITH A DOWNSLOPE...DOWN CANYON FLOW PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 1000L...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON (40-50 PERCENT). CLOUDS CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400L. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62. MIN HUMIDITY........27-30 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH 1000L...SHIFTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH BY NOON. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (78900-115300 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900L THEN CLEARING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45. MAX HUMIDITY........68-71 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL SUNSET THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWN CANYON 4 TO 7 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400-2900 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING POOR OVERNIGHT (19400-69200 KNOT-FT). .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67. MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (38500-94500 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120615.CARTE.01/RIW