FNUS73 KMQT 170942 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE NEAR PIKE LAKE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 542 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0334 EDT ON JUNE 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE TODAY. HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM EDT. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN PERIMETER OF THE FIRE AREA AROUND 5 PM. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 75 DEGREES WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 55 PERCENT NEAR THE LAKE TO 45 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BURN AREA. PLAN ON SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BURN AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY COULD BE ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF STRONGER STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN TREND DOWN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 75. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 52 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO 11 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 29 MPH DECREASING TO 1 TO 6 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (112). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........14 17 20 23 27 32 36 33 29 26 26 27 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 64 66 69 69 69 69 70 71 72 71 70 RH..............81 76 69 63 60 59 59 57 54 52 53 56 GENERAL WND DIR.SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW N N N GENERAL WND SPD.8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 GENERAL WND GST.13 13 13 13 13 13 10 10 10 12 12 12 VINDX KT-FT/100.53 48 45 40 23 17 30 78 112 108 84 39 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.3 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 54. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 91 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......EAST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 19 TO 33 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (15). LAL.................1 UNTIL 0600...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-900 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.05 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........27 30 34 37 48 59 71 78 86 94 91 87 WEATHER COV..... ISO SCT WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TEMP............68 65 63 62 59 57 56 56 55 56 56 57 RH..............59 64 69 73 79 85 89 90 91 90 90 88 GENERAL WND DIR.E E E S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WND SPD.5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 GENERAL WND GST.7 7 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 13 13 13 VINDX KT-FT/100.27 19 16 15 18 26 38 45 53 58 51 49 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 55 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 41 MPH INCREASING TO 34 TO 55 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 40 TO 64 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 36 TO 51 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (456) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (986) IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO GOOD (360) EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.40 TO 0.60 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........84 85 86 87 87 88 89 89 90 90 90 91 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............58 62 66 70 71 71 71 74 77 78 78 75 RH..............84 76 68 62 63 65 66 61 56 55 57 64 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WND SPD.10 10 10 12 12 12 14 14 14 13 13 13 GENERAL WND GST.16 16 16 21 21 21 23 23 23 21 21 21 VINDX KT-FT/100.63 126 209 289 232 135 123 456 825 986 732 360 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ROLFSON REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120617.DUCKL.01/MQT