FNUS75 KCYS 181646
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR COTTONWOOD FIRE...NSFS BFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1015 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT...DRY AND WINDY DAY TODAY AT THE BURN SITE. A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT USHERED BETTER DEW POINTS INTO THE BURN SITE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRIER AND BREEZIER WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE TODAY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...IF THEY DO DEVELOP EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
PERHAPS SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING TURNS WINDS NORTHEAST AGAIN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY...SO MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). VIRGA SHOWERS
                    POSSIBLE AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 7 TO 11 MPH UNTIL NOON...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 11 MPH...THEN BECOMING
                    WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH AFTER 1400.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 11 MPH UNTIL 1400...
                    THEN WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (66200-205800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-58 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
                    MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST AT
                    5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 0400...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BECOMING POOR AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT (4600-105100 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 MPH
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (84200-179900 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...WESTON BURCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120618.COTTO.02/CYS