FNUS73 KMQT 180950 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE NEAR PIKE LAKE...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 550 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0331 EDT ON JUNE 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE SLIDING INTO LUCE COUNTY BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DUCK LAKE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT WINDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...PUSHING A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. THE TAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE THAN TAKING HOLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 79. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 54 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 11 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 53 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 45 TO 68 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (310) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (925) LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................3 UNTIL 1800...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1100-2400 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.76 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........95 94 93 93 85 78 71 76 81 86 89 91 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............61 66 71 76 77 78 78 78 79 76 76 76 RH..............80 72 62 55 54 56 58 57 57 64 65 67 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WND SPD.11 11 11 14 14 14 17 17 17 13 13 13 GENERAL WND GST.20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 VINDX KT-FT/100.78 310 616 880 925 867 775 789 807 760 648 502 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 60. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 0200. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 33 TO 55 MPH BECOMING WEST 19 TO 31 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (20). LAL.................4 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-900 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.14 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........93 82 71 59 59 59 59 59 60 61 58 54 WEATHER COV.....NUM SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............75 73 70 68 65 62 60 60 61 61 61 60 RH..............71 74 79 86 94 100 100 100 100 98 100 100 GENERAL WND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW GENERAL WND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 7 7 7 6 6 6 GENERAL WND GST.17 17 17 15 15 15 10 10 10 8 8 8 VINDX KT-FT/100.376 261 158 88 61 58 60 58 55 55 32 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 56 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 29 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE...THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (393). LAL.................1 UNTIL 1700...THEN 2 UNTIL 1800...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.02 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........51 55 58 62 66 69 73 74 75 76 77 78 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TEMP............61 66 71 75 75 72 70 71 74 76 78 78 RH..............99 84 70 60 63 70 76 71 64 57 56 57 GENERAL WND DIR.SW SW SW NW NW NW NW NW NW NE NE NE GENERAL WND SPD.6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 GENERAL WND GST.8 8 8 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 VINDX KT-FT/100.53 182 318 393 329 214 133 109 78 71 115 173 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JLB REQUESTED BY...CELESTE CHINGWA TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120618.DUCKL.01/MQT