FNUS75 KGJT 212307
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE SAND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
507 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1548 MDT ON JUNE 21 AND NEAR
8300 FEET AGL.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PUSHED OVER WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT THEN
PUSHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BY STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM
ARRIVING TO THE NORTHWEST STATES. BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO GET SWEPT EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND SO LESS ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS MIXING BEGINS BY MID MORNING AND OVERCOMES THE
TERRAIN EFFECTS. THIS MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP INTO SOME
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME WIND GUST AT OR ABOVE 25 MPH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY LOOKS TO GET PUSHED
BACK INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE FIRE BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 84 F AT 8300 FT AGL.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 4 TO 8 MPH BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 11 TO 16 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 10700-11500 FT AGL IN BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    AFTER SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    POOR AFTER SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL OR LESS BY
                    LATE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 MPH THROUGH SUNSET THEN TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BUILD UPS
                    IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE FIRE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 13 MPH WITH
                    LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 13200 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...ED LIESER FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120621.LITTL.01/GJT