FNUS75 KGJT 232204
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE SAND FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1527 MDT ON JUNE 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST WEAK SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKS
INTO THE SAN JUAN REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO START BEFORE NOON AND SOME STORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE FIRE SITE HAPPENS TO BE IN ONE OF THE BEST PLACES TO GET
WETTING RAINS WITH A STORM MOTION OF ONLY 10 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST.
BUT EVEN WET STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CORES. ALL CELLS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS. THEREFORE A RED FLAG IS IN EFFECT 10 AM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE FIRE ON MONDAY. ANY STORMS ON MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY
YET STILL POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

THESE ARE OPERATIONAL PERIODS TO KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE SKY. THE
FIRST SIGNS OF VIRGA OR RAIN SHAFT ARE A HEADS UP SAFETY SITUATION
AS ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 2-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0900 INCREASING TO GOOD EXCEPT
                    EXCELLENT NEAR AFTERNOON STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 6.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS. BECOMING DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (73500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (6800-13200 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED AFTERNOON
                    DRY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OR WEST
                    OF THE FIRE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 2-7 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...ED LIESER FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120623.LITTL.01/GJT