FNUS75 KGJT 240545
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR STATELINE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2329 MDT ON JUNE 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS ENDED
BUT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST COLORADO FROM NEW MEXICO...BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AT THE FIRE SITE AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER
WESTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM...PROBABLY BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
WITH THE MOISTURE MAINLY REMAINING ABOVE 10000 FT AGL OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE
STARTS. GENERAL WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER ALOFT AND ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN FROM THE SOUTH AND MAY HELP ENHANCE THE UPVALLEY
TERRAIN EFFECTS.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........41-46%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWNVALLEY WINDS AT 5 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) WITH ISOLATED
                    MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 94 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS MAY REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN...TURNING FROM
                    DOWNVALLEY TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW BY 1000 THEN
                    UPVALLEY AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP
                    TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
                    PASSING SHOWERS OR STORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................6.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 14400 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...GOOSE GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120623.STATE.01/GJT