FNUS75 KPUB 240221
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
821 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...8 PM MDT UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THIS EVENING DUE
TO METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS NO LONGER MEETING CRITERIA.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS DOESN'T CHANGE ANYTHING.  CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREME.

A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
HAS BEEN NOTED AT THE NEAREST AVAILABLE SENSOR NEXT TO THE BURN SITE.
ACCORDING TO OUR HIGHEST RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS...EXPECT THIS
TREND TOWARD WINDS COMING OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY LIGHT...SO SUSPECT THE
MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THE MORE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY
DRAINAGE FLOWS UP IN THAT AREA.

AS FAR AS SMOKE TRANSPORT...THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE BURN
SITE MAY CARRY THE SMOKE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY...BUT
ANY SMOKE SETTLING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...MAY THEN
BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CORRIDOR INTO THE COLORADO SPRINGS
AREA ONCE ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ON THE PLAINS.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(68 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(33 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69F.
MAX HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...OCCASIONALLY
                    GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 12 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH TOWARD MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2300. POOR AFTER 0500.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (37 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURES....86-91F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 15000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91F.


$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...USFS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120623.WALDO.03/PUB