FNUS75 KPUB 240414
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON FIRE...EL PASO COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...10 PM MDT UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM WEATHER SENSORS NEAR THE BURN SITE...WINDS
ARE BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH
AT TIMES.  BASED ON OUR HIGHEST RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS...WE
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE COMING OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MOST THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY LIGHT...SO SUSPECT SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO
FOLLOW DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY DRAINAGE FLOWS IN THE FIRE AREA.

AS FAR AS SMOKE TRANSPORT...THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE BURN
SITE MAY CARRY THE SMOKE EAST TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY...BUT
ANY SMOKE SETTLING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT MAY THEN
BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CORRIDOR INTO THE COLORADO SPRINGS
AREA ONCE ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ON THE PLAINS.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT). AREAS OF
                    SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MAX HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...OCCASIONALLY
                    GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 4 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (55
                    PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 15500 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...EL PASO COUNTY SHERIFF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120623.WALDO.06/PUB