FNUS75 KPUB 240520
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON FIRE...TELLER COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...11 PM MDT UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM WEATHER SENSORS NEAR THE BURN SITE...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES AT SENSORS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE BURN SITE.
SENSORS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BURN SITE ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  BASED ON OUR HIGHEST RESOLUTION
SHORT RANGE MODELS...WE EXPECT THE GENERAL FLOW TO CONTINUE COMING
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MOST THE NIGHT.  BECAUSE WINDS
ALOFT ARE SO LIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO FOLLOW DRAINAGE
FLOWS OVERNIGHT...FLOWING DOWNSLOPE IN VALLEYS.

FOR TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE DRAINAGE
WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND 0900 OR SO.  THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN SPEED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH INTENSE HEATING AND
MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD TOP 25 MPH AT TIMES.

AS FAR AS SMOKE TRANSPORT TONIGHT...THE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE BURN SITE
WILL LIKELY CARRY THE SMOKE EASTWARD INITIALLY...BUT ANY SMOKE SETTLING
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WILL PROBABLY THEN BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE CORRIDOR INTO THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS
MORE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ON THE PLAINS.

FOR TOMORROW...SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.  THIS WILL DEFINITELY LESSEN THE DIRECT
TRANSPORT OF SMOKE INTO COLORADO SPRINGS.  NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH RESIDUAL
SMOKE OR SMOKE FROM OTHER FIRES WILL REMAIN IN THE CITY.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT). AREAS OF
                    SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MAX HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...OCCASIONALLY
                    GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 4 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (55
                    PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
                    GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 15500 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...STAN BISHOP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120623.WALDO.07/PUB