FNUS75 KPUB 242010
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...PUEBLO DISPATCH/EL PASO COUNTY EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
210 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

    2 PM UPDATE...

I AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED THAT WE MAY SEE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE GREATEST THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
STRONG...GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE FROM 3 TO 7 PM. SHORT TERM
SIMULATIONS THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STORM
DEVELOPING DIRECTLY OVER THE FIRE SITE.

DISCUSSION AT 2 PM:

NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST HOUR...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO EXIST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE RAMPART
RANGE. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE USAFA EASTWARD
INTO NORTHEAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION A 5 TO 15 MPH. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WINDS ARE FROM A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO
15 MPH. A 26 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS RECORDED ON TOP
OF THE RAMPART RANGE BY A USAFA MESONET SENSOR (SENSOR AFA09).

AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WOODLAND PARK HAD LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHILE THE MANCHESTER RAWS NORTH OF
WOODLAND PARK WAS NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH. WINDS ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPE OF
PIKES PEAK WERE UPSLOPE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. PIKES PEAK WAS RE PORING A
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 MPH.

SIMULATIONS SHOW THAT THE WINDS TYPICALLY 1/2 MILE ABOVE THE SURFACE
WERE FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH DURING THE REST OF THE
MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WINDS AT LOW ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 MPH.

SATELLITE DATA HAS SHOWN INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE FIRE AREA
AND SOME WEAK VIRGA ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TELLER COUNTY.

RADAR SHOWED A MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BLOWUP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
PARK COUNTY...WHICH IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF TELLER COUNTY.

FOR TONIGHT...HI RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOW A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES REGION AFTER 2000 LOCAL...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING DOWNSLOPE AFTER 2300 LOCAL.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CALL THE WEATHER OFFICE IF YOU WANT MORE
INFORMATION.

HODANISH


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(50 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 17000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(57 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2200.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD UNTIL
                    2200...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(34 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 10-14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 14000 FT AGL AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN AROUND 17
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.




$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH EL PASO COUNTY EM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120624.WALDO.14/PUB