FNUS75 KPUB 242227
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...PUEBLO DISPATCH/EL PASO COUNTY EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

4 PM UPDATE...

RADAR AT 4 PM WAS INDICATING DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PARK
COUNTY. SOME BUILDUPS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED IN WESTERN TELLER COUNTY
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO NEAR LARKSPUR.  GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.  THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHEST FROM NOW THROUGH
7PM.  WILL KEEP YOU ADVISED ON ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS.

WINDS WERE LIGHT SURROUNDING THE FIRE AREA. OBS ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATION OF THE FRONT RANGE WERE GENERALLY VARIABLE AT LESS THAN
5 KTS.  THERE IS A BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY
TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS ARE NORTHWEST NORTH OF THIS LINE WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY BE A TRIGGER POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE ARE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. IF NO
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR OR OVER THE FIRE SITE...THEN WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
AFTER 2000 LOCAL...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LIKELY BECOME DOWNSLOPE
A 4 TO 8 MPH.

IF DRY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FIRE SITE...WINDS
WOULD BECOME QUITE ERRATIC WITH LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER
THE STORMS GO BY WINDS WOULD LIKELY BECOME LIGHT WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT (4 TO 8 MPH). DOWNSLOPE WINDS WOULD DEVELOP AFTER
2000 LOCAL.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CALL THE WEATHER OFFICE IF YOU WANT MORE
INFORMATION.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MAX HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE TEXT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(34 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTH 12-16 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 14000 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL
                    1700...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH EL PASO COUNTY EM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120624.WALDO.16/PUB