FNUS75 KPUB 250001
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...PUEBLO DISPATCH/EL PASO COUNTY EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
601 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

6 PM UPDATE

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF TELLER COUNTY HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH AND WEAKENED.  THE MAIN THREAT NOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
OUTFLOW WINDS.  GUSTS ON SURFACE OBS AT WOODLAND PARK AND MANCHESTER
HAVE BEEN 10-15 KTS WHILE RADAR VALUES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING TO NEAR 25
KTS.  THEY SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE BURN SITE FROM NOW UNTIL AROUND
620 PM.  EXPECT PEAK GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS WITH
THIS OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER STORM FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE TELLER-DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE IS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  IT WOULD ARRIVE AFTER
630 PM AT THE BURN SITE.  GUSTS WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST.  IT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

NEW CELLS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR CRIPPLE CREEK ALONG
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY STORMS.  SO FAR
THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING GOING BUT WILL MONITOR.  LIGHTNING
AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IF THESE CELLS CAN GET
GOING.

OUTSIDE THE ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHEAST
AT 4 TO 8 MPH.  OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN SLOPES.  CURRENT HIGH-RES MODEL DATA IS CONTAMINATED BY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE HOURLY MODEL RUNS
STOP PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MAX HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE TEXT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTH 10-15 MPH.
                    WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SLOPES
                    OF THE RAMPART RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 14000 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL
                    1700...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH EL PASO COUNTY EM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120624.WALDO.18/PUB