FNUS75 KPUB 250100
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...PUEBLO DISPATCH/EL PASO COUNTY EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

7 PM UPDATE

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER TELLER COUNTY.  A CELL
HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS AREA WHICH LIKELY
PRODUCED A FEW MINUTES OF LIGHT RAIN.  NO LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.  EXPECT ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THIS COLLAPSING CELL TO AROUND 30-35 KTS THROUGH 715 PM.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN
END THROUGH 8 PM.  AGAIN THE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREAT OVER
THE NEXT HOUR...MOSTLY ERRATIC...WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT.

WINDS FOR TONIGHT...FINALLY GETTING SOME UNCONTAMINATED HIGH-RES MODEL
DATA.  THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BURN SITE THAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE MAY BE A BIT
MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DRAINAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY FROM 8 TO 12 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH POSSIBLE.  BASED
ON LAST NIGHT...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 3 AM THROUGH 6 AM WITH A LULL AROUND SUNSET.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HOURLY HIGH-RES MODEL DATA.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MAX HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE TEXT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTH 10-15 MPH.
                    WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SLOPES
                    OF THE RAMPART RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 14000 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL
                    1700...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH EL PASO COUNTY EM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120624.WALDO.19/PUB