FNUS75 KPUB 250300
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...PUEBLO DISPATCH/EL PASO COUNTY EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
900 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

9 PM UPDATE

HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING.  WHILE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN VERY LOW...HOVERING AROUND 15-18 PERCENT...WINDS
HAVE WEAKENED.  WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
7 TO 10 MPH NEAR THE BURN SITE.

THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING SHOULD BE NIL.  WE DID
HAVE A STORM FIRE NEAR CANON CITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND MOVE NORTH
BUT IT HAS WEAKENED.  THERE COULD BE SOME OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AROUND
10 PM FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...BUT THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THOSE
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE FIRE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST THINKING HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH AROUND 6 TO 9 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT.  EXPECT THE NORTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOWS TO PEAK AFTER
3 AM THROUGH AROUND 6 AM WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FOR MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE
BURN AREA.  THERE WILL BE A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN ONE ACTUALLY
PASSING OVER THE BURN SITE.  THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 10 AM MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD 13 TO 17 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MAX HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE TEXT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SEE TEXT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 14000 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL
                    1700...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH EL PASO COUNTY EM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120624.WALDO.21/PUB