FNUS75 KPUB 251030
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...TELLER COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
430 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WIND FLOW IS WEST TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY AT 12-17 MPH.  HIGH
RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN 0900 AND 1100.  BY ABOUT 1200-1300 THE OVERALL
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS
REACHING 25-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY OR
THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER IF ONE WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-45 MPH...AND DRY
LIGHTNING.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IF THIS OCCURS...THERE WOULD BE VERY
LITTLE RAIN...AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL AS DRY LIGHTNING.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH...WITH
                    GUSTY OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 13900 FT AGL BY 1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65F.
MAX HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WESTERLY 10-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2200.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    2200...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY(55
                    PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 15500 FT AGL AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 14 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...STAN BISHOP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120625.WALDO.02/PUB