FNUS75 KRIW 251556
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FONTENELLE FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
956 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0926 MDT ON JUNE 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE SIDE OF A
RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE EAST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AFTER 1400...CONTINUING THROUGH 1900...TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND
VERY STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES.

A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE DRY AIR FROM
THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 1500
AND TO THE NORTH AFTER 2100...BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.

RH RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN MORE DRY AIR AND MIXING DOWN SOME
20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS BY 1200 BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20
                    TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8400-9400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 28
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (63300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (197800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH 1900 BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT)
                    WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........57-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT AROUND 35 PERCENT AT MID
                    SLOPE.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 1900...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300-9300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3900-4900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 31 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (186800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (57700 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400-7400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 41
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (92200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (227600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...BENTLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120625.FONTE.01/RIW