FNUS75 KMSO 261711
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRCH CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1111 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1041 MDT ON JUNE 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW ALREADY
LOW HUMIDITIES TO DROP EVEN LOWER...CREATING VERY RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
FRONT THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM ANY VIRGA SEEN NEAR THE
FIRE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FIRE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE FIRE THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LESS WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER RECOVERIES FROM A COOLER AIRMASS. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES BUT MUCH LESS WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CUMULUS/VIRGA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
                    FIRE COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS
                    TO 55 MPH. BEST POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA WILL BE FROM
                    11 AM MDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-13 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
                    INCREASING TO 18-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THEN CLEARING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8 MPH INCREASING TO 9-13 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...DNRC COPPLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120626.BIRCH.01/MSO