FNUS75 KRIW 261812
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CATO...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1212 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1147 MDT ON JUNE 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BE STRONG DURING AND AFTER THE
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE FIRE BETWEEN 2100 AND
2200 TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE RED FLAG WARNING TO BE EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 0300 AND BECOME
LIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HEAT INDUCED SURFACE LOW SETS UP SOUTHEAST OF THE
FIRE...DRAWING AIR INTO IT AND SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS NORTHERLY
EVEN THOUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS SET UP COULD LEAD TO SOME ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ATTEMPT TO MIX DOWN DURING
PEAK HEATING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
                    MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 2100 DECREASING TO
                    8 TO 14 MPH AFTER 0300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER 2100.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
90S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...CDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120626.CATO_.02/RIW