FNUS75 KBOU 270739 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FLAGSTAFF...BOULDER COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 130 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT WEST WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THEN. SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS MAY DECOUPLE WITH COOLER TEMPS/HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. GAP WINDS IN THE CANYON WILL CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. MAX TEMP/MIN RH MAY OCCUR AROUND NOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY SLIGHT COOLING AND MOISTENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 1200 AND 1400...THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION FOR THESE WINDS WOULD BE BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST... AND WINDS COULD BE 10-20 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS AFTER THE OUTFLOW WINDS PASS. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF THIS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 1400-2000. AFTER 2000...THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO A NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A GAP WIND MAY ACCELERATE THE FLOW THROUGH THE CANYON WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE CANYON AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE FLATIRONS. FROM THURSDAY ON...A VERY GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....80 AT NCAR AT 0100...MIN 62-69. MAX HUMIDITY........20% AT NCAR AT 0100...MAX 27-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-88. MIN HUMIDITY........17-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 8-14 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 0900 AND 11000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-62. MAX HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 9-13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2100 AND 1000 FT AGL BY 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW DRY AFTER 0900. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-89. MIN HUMIDITY........13-16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 12000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FLAGSTAFF. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/27-01 14 3 1 67 33 SW 8 13 5 1 SW22 276 W13 2934 P 06/27-02 27 3 1 67 33 W13 21 5 1 S21 231 W15 2818 P 06/27-03 33 3 1 67 34 W16 25 5 1 S20 187 W16 2703 P 06/27-04 33 3 1 66 34 W17 28 5 1 S20 203 W17 3139 P 06/27-05 33 3 1 66 33 W17 28 4 1 S20 219 W18 3574 P 06/27-06 49 0 0 66 32 W16 25 6 1 S22 236 W20 4010 P 06/27-07 49 0 0 68 30 W15 24 6 1 SW26 1047 W17 13571 P 06/27-08 49 0 0 70 29 W14 22 6 1 SW33 1859 W16 23132 P 06/27-09 49 9 2 73 27 W13 21 6 1 SW37 2670 W14 32693 P 06/27-10 49 9 2 76 25 W12 18 6 1 SW37 5795 W16 88480 G 06/27-11 49 9 2 78 23 NW10 16 6 1 SW36 8920 SW17 144267 V 06/27-12 71 20 4 79 23 NW 9 15 5 3 SW33 12045 SW20 200053 E 06/27-13 71 20 4 80 23 N 8 14 5 3 SW35 12369 SW20 209382 E 06/27-14 71 20 4 81 23 E 8 13 4 3 SW36 12693 SW20 218711 E 06/27-15 71 36 14 81 24 E 8 13 4 4 SW37 13017 SW21 228040 E 06/27-16 71 36 14 81 24 E 8 13 4 4 SW37 12602 SW20 218064 E 06/27-17 71 36 14 81 25 E 8 14 5 4 SW36 12187 SW20 208087 E 06/27-18 65 26 6 79 26 NE 9 15 4 4 SW36 11772 SW20 198111 E 06/27-19 65 26 6 77 27 E10 16 4 4 SW35 8247 SW16 135099 V 06/27-20 65 26 6 73 30 S12 17 4 4 SW33 4722 SW13 72088 G 06/27-21 65 10 2 69 34 SW12 18 4 2 SW32 1197 SW 9 9076 P 06/27-22 65 10 2 67 38 SW12 17 4 2 SW31 874 SW 8 6538 P 06/27-23 65 10 2 65 42 S10 16 4 2 SW30 550 SW 8 3999 P 06/28-00 42 9 2 63 46 S 9 15 4 1 SW29 226 SW 7 1461 P 06/28-01 42 9 2 61 50 S 8 13 4 1 SW25 204 SW 7 1322 P 06/28-02 42 9 2 60 52 SW 7 7 4 1 SW23 182 W 8 1183 P 06/28-03 42 6 1 59 54 SW 7 7 4 1 SW21 160 W 8 1045 P 06/28-04 42 6 1 58 54 SW 7 7 4 1 SW20 152 W 8 1015 P 06/28-05 42 6 1 58 52 W 8 13 4 1 SW18 144 W 8 985 P 06/28-06 37 7 1 56 52 W 8 13 5 1 SW18 137 W 8 955 P 06/28-07 37 7 1 62 41 W 8 8 5 1 SW18 1192 W 9 11061 P 06/28-08 37 7 1 68 32 W 7 7 4 1 W18 2247 W10 21167 P 06/28-09 37 10 2 71 28 W 6 6 3 2 W18 3301 W10 31272 P 06/28-10 37 10 2 74 24 W 5 5 4 2 W22 5781 W12 60983 G 06/28-11 37 10 2 76 22 W 3 3 4 2 W24 8260 W13 90696 G 06/28-12 53 10 2 78 20 W 3 3 4 2 W26 10739 W13 120408 V 06/28-13 53 10 2 79 19 SW 5 5 4 2 W26 11729 W13 127260 V 06/28-14 53 10 2 81 17 S 7 7 4 2 W24 12720 SW13 134113 V 06/28-15 53 10 2 82 17 S 8 13 5 2 W23 13710 SW12 140965 V 06/28-16 53 10 2 83 16 S 8 14 5 2 W23 13584 SW13 151279 E 06/28-17 53 10 2 83 16 SW 8 13 5 2 W24 13458 W14 161592 E 06/28-18 46 10 2 81 17 SW 8 13 5 2 W24 13331 W15 171905 E 06/28-19 46 10 2 78 19 SW 8 14 5 2 W25 9358 W13 118551 V 06/28-20 46 10 2 73 23 SW 9 14 5 2 W25 5384 W12 65196 G 06/28-21 46 10 2 68 29 SW 9 15 5 2 W25 1411 W 9 11842 P 06/28-22 46 10 2 63 35 W 9 15 5 2 W23 1012 W 9 8479 P 06/28-23 46 10 2 61 38 W 9 15 5 2 W20 612 W 9 5116 P 06/29-00 31 4 1 59 42 W 9 15 5 1 W17 213 W 9 1753 P 06/29-01 31 4 1 58 43 W10 16 5 1 W16 193 W 9 1577 P 06/29-02 31 4 1 56 45 W12 17 5 1 W16 174 W 9 1401 P 06/29-03 31 4 1 56 44 W12 18 4 1 W16 154 W 9 1225 P 06/29-04 31 4 1 55 45 W10 17 4 1 W16 147 W 9 1115 P 06/29-05 31 4 1 55 44 W 9 15 4 1 W16 141 W 8 1006 P 06/29-06 30 4 1 55 43 W 8 13 4 1 W17 134 W 8 897 P 06/29-07 30 4 1 60 34 W 7 7 4 1 W18 1150 W 8 9070 P 06/29-08 30 4 1 66 26 W 7 7 4 1 W21 2166 W 9 17244 P 06/29-09 30 4 1 70 22 W 6 6 4 1 W23 3182 W 9 25417 P 06/29-10 30 4 1 73 20 SW 3 3 5 1 W26 5492 W10 57886 F 06/29-11 30 4 1 75 18 CALM 1 5 1 W31 7801 W13 90356 G 06/29-12 45 10 2 77 17 CALM 0 5 2 W33 10111 W14 122825 V 06/29-13 45 10 2 79 16 CALM 0 5 2 W33 11397 W15 144672 V 06/29-14 45 10 2 81 15 CALM 0 5 2 W31 12684 W15 166519 E 06/29-15 45 10 2 81 15 CALM 1 5 2 W29 13970 W15 188366 E 06/29-16 45 10 2 83 15 CALM 1 5 2 W29 13437 W15 179212 E 06/29-17 45 10 2 82 16 S 2 2 5 2 W30 12904 W15 170058 E 06/29-18 42 15 3 81 17 SW 2 2 5 3 W31 12371 W15 160905 E 06/29-19 42 15 3 78 20 SW 2 2 3 06/29-20 42 15 3 74 24 SW 3 3 3 06/29-21 42 15 3 70 29 S 3 3 3 06/29-22 42 15 3 67 32 SW 5 5 3 06/29-23 42 15 3 65 34 SW 5 5 3 06/30-00 28 11 2 64 36 W 6 6 1 06/30-01 28 11 2 62 38 W 7 7 1 06/30-02 28 11 2 61 40 W 7 7 1 06/30-03 28 7 1 59 42 W 7 7 1 06/30-04 28 7 1 58 42 W 7 7 1 06/30-05 28 7 1 58 42 W 6 6 1 06/30-06 24 5 1 58 40 W 6 6 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...FIRE BEHAVIOR ANALYST REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120627.FLAGS.01/BOU