FNUS75 KBOU 271302 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SPRINGER FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 700 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REVERSES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. THIS CAUSES THE AIR PRESSURE TO RIDE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN THE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS. IN ADDITION...A BATCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE NOW PASSING OVER WESTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE FIRE AREA AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES..INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WERE THE MAIN REASONS FOR NOT ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FIRE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....82. MIN HUMIDITY........14-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12800-13800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2030. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52. MAX HUMIDITY........58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....82. MIN HUMIDITY........17%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 13200-14200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SPRINGER FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/27-06 37 0 0 56 33 W10 10 4 1 SW29 307 W10 2666 P 06/27-07 37 0 0 59 29 W10 10 4 1 SW28 1611 W13 21899 P 06/27-08 37 0 0 63 26 W 9 9 4 1 SW26 2915 W14 41132 F 06/27-09 44 8 2 68 21 W 7 7 4 1 SW25 4219 W16 60365 G 06/27-10 44 8 2 72 18 W12 12 4 1 SW28 6865 W18 119316 V 06/27-11 44 8 2 76 16 W12 12 3 1 SW30 9510 SW21 178268 E 06/27-12 71 22 4 78 15 SW13 13 3 3 SW32 12156 SW23 237220 E 06/27-13 71 22 4 79 14 W14 22 3 3 SW35 12787 SW23 261332 E 06/27-14 71 22 4 80 14 W18 30 4 3 SW37 13417 SW24 285445 E 06/27-15 76 35 13 80 14 W23 37 4 4 SW37 14048 SW25 309558 E 06/27-16 76 35 13 81 14 W13 13 4 4 SW36 13622 SW23 277255 E 06/27-17 76 35 13 80 15 W15 24 4 4 SW33 13197 SW21 244953 E 06/27-18 66 24 5 79 17 W 8 8 3 3 SW29 12771 SW20 212651 E 06/27-19 66 24 5 76 19 W 7 7 3 3 SW23 8926 SW15 144255 V 06/27-20 66 24 5 72 24 W 6 6 3 3 S18 5082 W12 75860 G 06/27-21 66 10 2 67 30 W 5 5 3 2 S15 1237 W 7 7464 P 06/27-22 66 10 2 64 35 W 3 3 3 2 S17 902 W 6 5265 P 06/27-23 66 10 2 62 40 SW 3 3 3 2 SW23 568 SW 5 3065 P 06/28-00 50 7 1 60 46 SW 3 3 3 1 SW29 233 SW 5 866 P 06/28-01 50 7 1 58 50 SW 3 3 3 1 SW33 252 W 6 1258 P 06/28-02 50 7 1 57 54 W 5 5 3 1 SW37 270 W 7 1650 P 06/28-03 50 7 1 55 57 W 5 5 3 1 SW37 289 W 8 2042 P 06/28-04 50 7 1 54 58 W 5 5 3 1 SW35 256 W 8 1732 P 06/28-05 50 7 1 54 56 W 5 5 3 1 W29 224 W 7 1422 P 06/28-06 40 7 1 52 57 W 5 5 3 1 W25 192 W 7 1112 P 06/28-07 40 7 1 55 51 W 5 5 3 1 W25 1270 W 8 13151 P 06/28-08 40 7 1 60 40 W 5 5 3 1 W28 2349 W10 25190 P 06/28-09 40 10 2 66 30 W 5 5 3 2 W30 3427 W13 37228 P 06/28-10 40 10 2 72 24 W 5 5 2 2 W23 6546 W12 75641 G 06/28-11 40 10 2 76 21 SW 5 5 2 2 W23 9494 W14 118624 V 06/28-12 51 17 3 78 19 SW 6 6 3 3 W22 12442 W15 161607 E 06/28-13 51 17 3 80 18 SW 7 7 3 3 W21 13195 W15 173855 E 06/28-14 51 17 3 82 17 SW 9 15 4 3 W18 13947 SW15 186103 E 06/28-15 51 17 3 82 17 SW10 16 4 3 W16 14699 SW15 198351 E 06/28-16 51 17 3 82 17 SW10 17 4 3 W16 14183 SW16 193574 E 06/28-17 51 17 3 81 18 SW10 16 4 3 W16 13667 W16 188797 E 06/28-18 48 10 2 80 19 SW 9 15 3 2 W16 13151 W16 184020 E 06/28-19 48 10 2 79 20 W 8 13 3 2 W17 11589 W15 154748 E 06/28-20 48 10 2 77 21 W 7 7 3 2 W17 10026 W14 125475 V 06/28-21 48 10 2 73 25 W 6 6 3 2 W18 8463 W13 96203 G 06/28-22 48 10 2 68 30 W 6 6 3 2 W18 5748 W12 64984 G 06/28-23 48 10 2 65 33 W 6 6 3 2 W17 3033 W10 33765 P 06/29-00 25 4 1 62 37 W 6 6 3 1 W16 319 W 9 2546 P 06/29-01 25 4 1 59 42 W 6 6 3 1 W16 269 W 8 2025 P 06/29-02 25 4 1 57 45 W 6 6 3 1 W16 219 W 8 1504 P 06/29-03 25 4 1 55 48 W 6 6 3 1 W16 169 W 7 983 P 06/29-04 25 4 1 53 50 W 6 6 3 1 W15 159 W 7 940 P 06/29-05 25 4 1 52 51 W 6 6 3 1 W15 148 W 7 897 P 06/29-06 22 4 1 51 52 W 6 6 3 1 W16 137 W 7 853 P 06/29-07 22 4 1 53 46 W 6 6 3 1 W16 1123 W 8 8491 P 06/29-08 22 4 1 59 35 W 5 5 3 1 W17 2110 W 8 16129 P 06/29-09 22 4 1 66 26 W 5 5 3 1 W20 3096 W 9 23767 P 06/29-10 22 4 1 72 21 W 5 5 3 1 W21 6012 W10 60691 G 06/29-11 22 4 1 76 17 W 5 5 3 1 W23 8927 W12 97614 G 06/29-12 42 10 2 79 15 W 5 5 3 2 W23 11842 W13 134538 V 06/29-13 42 10 2 81 14 W 6 6 3 2 W21 13878 W13 160026 E 06/29-14 42 10 2 83 14 W 6 6 3 2 W16 15914 W14 185515 E 06/29-15 42 10 2 83 14 W 6 6 3 2 W13 17950 W14 211003 E 06/29-16 42 10 2 83 14 W 5 5 3 2 W12 17206 W13 190227 E 06/29-17 42 10 2 82 15 NW 2 2 3 2 W12 16461 W12 169450 E 06/29-18 39 9 2 81 16 CALM 1 3 1 W12 15717 W10 148674 V 06/29-19 39 9 2 80 18 CALM 1 3 1 W13 12971 W 9 108740 V 06/29-20 39 9 2 78 20 CALM 1 3 1 W14 10225 W 7 68806 G 06/29-21 39 9 2 74 24 CALM 1 3 1 W14 7479 W 5 28872 P 06/29-22 39 9 2 70 28 CALM 1 3 1 W13 5085 W 5 19542 P 06/29-23 39 9 2 67 32 NW 2 2 3 1 W12 2692 NW 3 10212 P 06/30-00 28 6 1 64 36 W 2 2 3 1 W10 298 NW 3 882 P 06/30-01 28 6 1 60 40 W 2 2 3 1 W10 258 NW 3 841 P 06/30-02 28 6 1 58 43 W 3 3 3 1 W12 218 NW 5 799 P 06/30-03 28 6 1 56 45 W 3 3 3 1 W13 177 NW 5 757 P 06/30-04 28 6 1 55 46 W 3 3 3 1 W14 166 NW 5 732 P 06/30-05 28 6 1 53 47 W 5 5 3 1 W15 154 W 6 707 P 06/30-06 20 7 1 52 47 W 5 5 3 1 W17 142 W 6 682 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JARROD SAYER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120627.SPRIN.01/BOU